Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 24 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo43%55%+12 pts

Down

Palmeiras57%44%−13 pts

Flamengo beat Botafogo 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 43% to 55%. Palmeiras drew 1–1 at Mirassol, and their title chances fell from 57% to 44%. Flamengo lead the title race at 55%.

Libertadores

Up

Bahia28%39%+11 pts
Atlético-MG21%30%+9 pts
São Paulo1%3%+2 pts

Down

Cruzeiro60%46%−14 pts
Bragantino21%15%−6 pts
Botafogo10%8%−2 pts

Bahia beat Internacional 3–2 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 28% to 39%. Cruzeiro lost 3–1 at Vasco, and their Libertadores chances fell from 60% to 46%.

Relegation

Up

Internacional39%52%+13 pts
Vitória17%25%+8 pts
Remo79%84%+5 pts

Down

Vasco64%51%−13 pts
Santos31%19%−12 pts
Grêmio26%20%−6 pts

Internacional lost 3–2 at Bahia, and their relegation chances rose from 39% to 52%. Vasco beat Cruzeiro 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 64% to 51%.

Changes since Matchday 23, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Vasco

3–1

Cruzeiro

Vasco 3–1 Cruzeiro moved the odds the most. Vasco beat Cruzeiro 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 64% to 51%. Cruzeiro lost 3–1 at Vasco, and their Libertadores chances fell from 60% to 46%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Athletico-PR
Fluminense
Bahia

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	52	44%−13 pts	100%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	48	55%+12 pts	100%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	45	<1%±0	76%−1 pt	0%±0
4	FluminenseFluminense	42	<1%±0	76%+1 pt	0%±0
5	BahiaBahia	40	<1%±0	39%+11 pts	<1%±0
6	CruzeiroCruzeiro	39	<1%±0	46%−14 pts	<1%±0
7	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	36	<1%±0	30%+9 pts	<1%±0
8	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	35	0%±0	15%−6 pts	<1%±0
9	CoritibaCoritiba	34	0%±0	3%±0	3%+1 pt
10	CorinthiansCorinthians	32	0%±0	2%−2 pts	4%+2 pts
11	São PauloSão Paulo	30	0%±0	3%+2 pts	4%−3 pts
12	BotafogoBotafogo	30	0%±0	8%−2 pts	2%+1 pt
13	VitóriaVitória	29	0%±0	<1%±0	25%+8 pts
14	SantosSantos	29	0%±0	1%+1 pt	19%−12 pts
15	GrêmioGrêmio	28	0%±0	<1%±0	20%−6 pts
16	MirassolMirassol	25	0%±0	<1%±0	35%+3 pts
17	VascoVasco	25	0%±0	<1%±0	51%−13 pts
18	InternacionalInternacional	25	0%±0	<1%±0	52%+13 pts
19	RemoRemo	23	0%±0	0%±0	84%+5 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	14	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 24, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 23 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%