Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 27 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Palmeiras31%32%+1 pt

Down

Flamengo69%68%−1 pt

Palmeiras beat São Paulo 2–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 31% to 32%. Flamengo beat Corinthians 2–1 at home, and their title chances fell from 69% to 68%. Flamengo lead the title race at 68%.

Libertadores

Up

Atlético-MG17%30%+13 pts
Bahia55%65%+10 pts
Santos1%2%+1 pt

Down

Cruzeiro57%47%−10 pts
Fluminense82%74%−8 pts
São Paulo6%4%−2 pts

Atlético-MG beat Fluminense 3–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 17% to 30%. Cruzeiro lost 2–1 at Santos, and their Libertadores chances fell from 57% to 47%.

Relegation

Up

Grêmio27%46%+19 pts
Mirassol22%31%+9 pts
Remo93%95%+2 pts

Down

Vasco57%38%−19 pts
Internacional65%54%−11 pts
Santos8%3%−5 pts

Grêmio lost 2–1 to Vasco at home, and their relegation chances rose from 27% to 46%. Vasco won 2–1 at Grêmio, and their relegation chances fell from 57% to 38%.

Changes since Matchday 26, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Grêmio

1–2

Vasco

Grêmio 1–2 Vasco moved the odds the most. Grêmio lost 2–1 to Vasco at home, and their relegation chances rose from 27% to 46%. Vasco won 2–1 at Grêmio, and their relegation chances fell from 57% to 38%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Athletico-PR
Fluminense
Bahia

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	FlamengoFlamengo	57	68%−1 pt	100%±0	0%±0
2	PalmeirasPalmeiras	56	32%+1 pt	100%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	46	<1%±0	66%±0	0%±0
4	BahiaBahia	46	0%±0	65%+10 pts	0%±0
5	FluminenseFluminense	45	<1%±0	74%−8 pts	0%±0
6	CruzeiroCruzeiro	42	0%±0	47%−10 pts	0%±0
7	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	39	0%±0	30%+13 pts	<1%±0
8	CoritibaCoritiba	38	0%±0	2%−1 pt	2%±0
9	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	36	0%±0	7%±0	1%±0
10	SantosSantos	35	0%±0	2%+1 pt	3%−5 pts
11	São PauloSão Paulo	33	0%±0	4%−2 pts	2%+1 pt
12	VitóriaVitória	33	0%±0	<1%±0	12%−1 pt
13	CorinthiansCorinthians	32	0%±0	<1%±0	12%+2 pts
14	BotafogoBotafogo	32	0%±0	4%−1 pt	2%+1 pt
15	MirassolMirassol	29	0%±0	<1%±0	31%+9 pts
16	GrêmioGrêmio	28	0%±0	<1%±0	46%+19 pts
17	VascoVasco	28	0%±0	<1%±0	38%−19 pts
18	InternacionalInternacional	28	0%±0	0%±0	54%−11 pts
19	RemoRemo	23	0%±0	0%±0	95%+2 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	17	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 27, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 26 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%