Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 16 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Palmeiras34%66%+32 pts

Down

Flamengo64%33%−31 pts

Palmeiras won 3–0 at Flamengo, and their title chances rose from 34% to 66%. Flamengo lost 3–0 to Palmeiras at home, and their title chances fell from 64% to 33%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 66%.

Libertadores

Up

Bragantino15%33%+18 pts
Athletico-PR7%13%+6 pts
Coritiba5%9%+4 pts

Down

Bahia41%30%−11 pts
Fluminense83%76%−7 pts
São Paulo45%40%−5 pts

Bragantino won 3–0 at Vasco, and their Libertadores chances rose from 15% to 33%. Bahia lost 3–2 at Coritiba, and their Libertadores chances fell from 41% to 30%.

Relegation

Up

Vasco14%30%+16 pts
Santos34%45%+11 pts
Remo82%91%+9 pts

Down

Mirassol39%28%−11 pts
Vitória25%15%−10 pts
Corinthians27%20%−7 pts

Vasco lost 3–0 to Bragantino at home, and their relegation chances rose from 14% to 30%. Mirassol beat Fluminense 1–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 39% to 28%.

Changes since Matchday 15, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Flamengo

0–3

Palmeiras

Flamengo 0–3 Palmeiras moved the odds the most. Flamengo lost 3–0 to Palmeiras at home, and their title chances fell from 64% to 33%. Palmeiras won 3–0 at Flamengo, and their title chances rose from 34% to 66%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
Botafogo
Bragantino

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Botafogo	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	20%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	12%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	6%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	5%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	1%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	1%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	<1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	38	66%+32 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	31	33%−31 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	30	1%±0	76%−7 pts	<1%±0
4	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	27	<1%±0	13%+6 pts	7%−5 pts
5	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	26	<1%±0	33%+18 pts	2%−3 pts
6	CoritibaCoritiba	26	0%±0	9%+4 pts	9%−7 pts
7	São PauloSão Paulo	25	<1%±0	40%−5 pts	1%±0
8	BahiaBahia	23	<1%±0	30%−11 pts	2%+1 pt
9	CruzeiroCruzeiro	23	0%±0	19%+2 pts	5%±0
10	BotafogoBotafogo	22	<1%±0	45%−2 pts	1%±0
11	VitóriaVitória	22	0%±0	6%+3 pts	15%−10 pts
12	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	21	0%±0	8%−4 pts	12%+4 pts
13	InternacionalInternacional	21	0%±0	4%−5 pts	19%+8 pts
14	GrêmioGrêmio	21	0%±0	7%+2 pts	13%−6 pts
15	CorinthiansCorinthians	21	0%±0	4%+2 pts	20%−7 pts
16	VascoVasco	20	<1%±0	2%−5 pts	30%+16 pts
17	SantosSantos	18	0%±0	1%−1 pt	45%+11 pts
18	MirassolMirassol	16	0%±0	3%+1 pt	28%−11 pts
19	RemoRemo	15	0%±0	<1%±0	91%+9 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	9	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 16, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 15 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Botafogo	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	20%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	12%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	6%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	5%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	1%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	1%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	<1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Botafogo	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	20%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	12%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	6%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	5%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	1%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	1%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	<1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Botafogo	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	20%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	12%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	6%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	5%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	1%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	1%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	<1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%