Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 30 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Palmeiras34%35%+1 pt

Down

Flamengo66%65%−1 pt

Palmeiras beat Corinthians 4–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 34% to 35%. Flamengo beat Fluminense 1–0 at home, and their title chances fell from 66% to 65%. Flamengo lead the title race at 65%.

Libertadores

Up

Athletico-PR72%84%+12 pts
Bahia37%47%+10 pts
Atlético-MG19%26%+7 pts

Down

Cruzeiro72%52%−20 pts
Santos6%2%−4 pts
Fluminense91%88%−3 pts

Athletico-PR won 4–1 at Chapecoense, and their Libertadores chances rose from 72% to 84%. Cruzeiro lost 4–2 at Bragantino, and their Libertadores chances fell from 72% to 52%.

Relegation

Up

Grêmio62%65%+3 pts
Corinthians34%36%+2 pts
Mirassol19%21%+2 pts

Down

Internacional51%48%−3 pts
Coritiba8%6%−2 pts
São Paulo3%1%−2 pts

Grêmio drew 1–1 with Internacional at home, and their relegation chances rose from 62% to 65%. Internacional drew 1–1 at Grêmio, and their relegation chances fell from 51% to 48%.

Changes since Matchday 29, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Red Bull Bragantino

4–2

Cruzeiro

Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro moved the odds the most. Bragantino beat Cruzeiro 4–2 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 2% to <1%. Cruzeiro lost 4–2 at Bragantino, and their Libertadores chances fell from 72% to 52%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Athletico-PR
Fluminense
Bahia

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%
28	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	0%
29	66%	34%	0%	<1%	0%
30	65%	35%	<1%	0%	0%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	FlamengoFlamengo	64	65%−1 pt	100%±0	0%±0
2	PalmeirasPalmeiras	63	35%+1 pt	100%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	53	<1%±0	84%+12 pts	0%±0
4	FluminenseFluminense	51	0%±0	88%−3 pts	0%±0
5	BahiaBahia	49	0%±0	47%+10 pts	0%±0
6	CruzeiroCruzeiro	48	0%±0	52%−20 pts	0%±0
7	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	47	0%±0	26%+7 pts	0%±0
8	SantosSantos	42	0%±0	2%−4 pts	<1%±0
9	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	40	0%±0	1%±0	<1%−2 pts
10	São PauloSão Paulo	39	0%±0	<1%±0	1%−2 pts
11	CoritibaCoritiba	39	0%±0	<1%±0	6%−2 pts
12	VitóriaVitória	36	0%±0	<1%±0	12%+2 pts
13	BotafogoBotafogo	36	0%±0	<1%±0	3%−1 pt
14	VascoVasco	35	0%±0	<1%±0	9%+1 pt
15	MirassolMirassol	33	0%±0	0%±0	21%+2 pts
16	CorinthiansCorinthians	32	0%±0	0%±0	36%+2 pts
17	InternacionalInternacional	32	0%±0	0%±0	48%−3 pts
18	GrêmioGrêmio	31	0%±0	0%±0	65%+3 pts
19	RemoRemo	25	0%±0	0%±0	99%±0
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	18	0%±0	0%±0	100%±0

Chances after Matchday 30, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 29 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%
28	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	0%
29	66%	34%	0%	<1%	0%
30	65%	35%	<1%	0%	0%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%
28	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	0%
29	66%	34%	0%	<1%	0%
30	65%	35%	<1%	0%	0%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%
28	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	0%
29	66%	34%	0%	<1%	0%
30	65%	35%	<1%	0%	0%