Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 4

After the games up to 12 March 2026

Flamengo lead the title race at 47%. Mirassol 2–2 Santos moved the odds the most.

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Flamengo34%47%+13 pts
São Paulo1%4%+3 pts
Fluminense4%6%+2 pts

Down

Palmeiras46%34%−12 pts
Mirassol5%2%−3 pts
Bahia3%1%−2 pts

Flamengo beat Cruzeiro 2–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 34% to 47%. Palmeiras's title chances fell from 46% to 34%. Flamengo lead the title race at 47%.

Libertadores

São Paulo30%58%+28 pts
Fluminense56%66%+10 pts
Flamengo93%96%+3 pts

Down

Mirassol56%42%−14 pts
Cruzeiro25%12%−13 pts
Bahia46%36%−10 pts

São Paulo's Libertadores chances rose from 30% to 58%. Mirassol drew 2–2 with Santos at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 56% to 42%.

Relegation

Internacional36%48%+12 pts
Remo81%89%+8 pts
Athletico-PR54%59%+5 pts

Down

Coritiba50%35%−15 pts
Santos31%17%−14 pts
Vasco21%15%−6 pts

Internacional's relegation chances rose from 36% to 48%. Coritiba's relegation chances fell from 50% to 35%.

Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Mirassol

2–2

Santos

Mirassol 2–2 Santos moved the odds the most. Mirassol drew 2–2 with Santos at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 56% to 42%. Santos's relegation chances fell from 31% to 17%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Fluminense
Botafogo
São Paulo

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	São PauloSão Paulo	13	4%+3 pts	58%+28 pts	<1%−1 pt
2	PalmeirasPalmeiras	10	34%−12 pts	94%−2 pts	0%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	10	6%+2 pts	66%+10 pts	<1%±0
4	BahiaBahia	8	1%−2 pts	36%−10 pts	1%+1 pt
5	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	8	<1%±0	4%−2 pts	12%+3 pts
6	FlamengoFlamengo	7	47%+13 pts	96%+3 pts	0%±0
7	CoritibaCoritiba	7	0%±0	1%+1 pt	35%−15 pts
8	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	7	0%±0	<1%±0	59%+5 pts
9	GrêmioGrêmio	7	<1%±0	14%+1 pt	4%±0
10	CorinthiansCorinthians	7	<1%±0	5%−3 pts	10%+2 pts
11	MirassolMirassol	6	2%−3 pts	42%−14 pts	<1%±0
12	ChapecoenseChapecoense	5	0%±0	<1%±0	59%+3 pts
13	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	5	<1%±0	4%±0	13%±0
14	SantosSantos	5	<1%±0	3%+2 pts	17%−14 pts
15	VascoVasco	4	<1%±0	3%+1 pt	15%−6 pts
16	VitóriaVitória	4	0%±0	1%±0	31%−4 pts
17	BotafogoBotafogo	3	5%−1 pt	61%−1 pt	<1%±0
18	RemoRemo	3	0%±0	0%±0	89%+8 pts
19	InternacionalInternacional	2	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	48%+12 pts
20	CruzeiroCruzeiro	2	<1%−1 pt	12%−13 pts	5%+3 pts