Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 28 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo68%77%+9 pts

Down

Palmeiras32%23%−9 pts

Flamengo beat Bragantino 2–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 68% to 77%. Palmeiras drew 0–0 at Grêmio, and their title chances fell from 32% to 23%. Flamengo lead the title race at 77%.

Libertadores

Up

Athletico-PR66%79%+13 pts
Cruzeiro47%60%+13 pts
Fluminense74%85%+11 pts

Down

Bahia65%46%−19 pts
Atlético-MG30%16%−14 pts
Bragantino7%4%−3 pts

Athletico-PR beat Bahia 2–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 66% to 79%. Bahia lost 2–1 at Athletico-PR, and their Libertadores chances fell from 65% to 46%.

Relegation

Up

Corinthians12%22%+10 pts
Internacional54%63%+9 pts
Vitória12%20%+8 pts

Down

Vasco38%19%−19 pts
Mirassol31%17%−14 pts
Santos3%1%−2 pts

Corinthians lost 3–1 to Fluminense at home, and their relegation chances rose from 12% to 22%. Vasco beat Coritiba 5–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 38% to 19%.

Changes since Matchday 27, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Athletico Paranaense

2–1

Bahia

Athletico-PR 2–1 Bahia moved the odds the most. Athletico-PR beat Bahia 2–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 66% to 79%. Bahia lost 2–1 at Athletico-PR, and their Libertadores chances fell from 65% to 46%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Athletico-PR
Fluminense
Bahia

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%
28	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	0%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	FlamengoFlamengo	60	77%+9 pts	100%±0	0%±0
2	PalmeirasPalmeiras	57	23%−9 pts	100%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	49	<1%±0	79%+13 pts	0%±0
4	FluminenseFluminense	48	<1%±0	85%+11 pts	0%±0
5	BahiaBahia	46	0%±0	46%−19 pts	0%±0
6	CruzeiroCruzeiro	45	0%±0	60%+13 pts	0%±0
7	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	40	0%±0	16%−14 pts	<1%±0
8	SantosSantos	38	0%±0	3%+1 pt	1%−2 pts
9	CoritibaCoritiba	38	0%±0	<1%−2 pts	4%+2 pts
10	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	36	0%±0	4%−3 pts	1%±0
11	São PauloSão Paulo	36	0%±0	5%+1 pt	1%−1 pt
12	BotafogoBotafogo	35	0%±0	2%−2 pts	2%±0
13	VitóriaVitória	33	0%±0	<1%±0	20%+8 pts
14	CorinthiansCorinthians	32	0%±0	<1%±0	22%+10 pts
15	MirassolMirassol	32	0%±0	<1%±0	17%−14 pts
16	VascoVasco	31	0%±0	<1%±0	19%−19 pts
17	GrêmioGrêmio	29	0%±0	<1%±0	53%+7 pts
18	InternacionalInternacional	28	0%±0	0%±0	63%+9 pts
19	RemoRemo	23	0%±0	0%±0	98%+3 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	18	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 28, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 27 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%
28	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	0%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%
28	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	0%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Bahia
1	44%	18%	0%	3%	2%
2	34%	38%	0%	4%	2%
3	34%	46%	<1%	4%	3%
4	47%	34%	0%	6%	1%
5	61%	28%	0%	3%	1%
6	63%	30%	0%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	<1%	2%	1%
8	30%	61%	<1%	6%	2%
9	27%	68%	0%	3%	<1%
10	39%	57%	0%	2%	1%
11	44%	52%	0%	2%	1%
12	52%	47%	0%	1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	0%	1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	0%	1%	<1%
16	33%	66%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	38%	61%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	0%
23	43%	57%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	55%	44%	<1%	<1%	0%
26	69%	31%	<1%	<1%	0%
27	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	0%
28	77%	23%	<1%	<1%	0%