Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 12 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo44%52%+8 pts

Down

Palmeiras52%47%−5 pts
Fluminense2%1%−1 pt
Bahia1%<1%−1 pt

Flamengo won 4–0 at Atlético-MG, and their title chances rose from 44% to 52%. Palmeiras won 1–0 at Bragantino, and their title chances fell from 52% to 47%. Flamengo lead the title race at 52%.

Libertadores

Up

São Paulo47%59%+12 pts
Cruzeiro7%12%+5 pts
Athletico-PR4%7%+3 pts

Down

Bahia62%54%−8 pts
Botafogo62%54%−8 pts
Bragantino10%7%−3 pts

São Paulo beat Mirassol 1–0 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 47% to 59%. Bahia drew 2–2 with Santos at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 62% to 54%.

Relegation

Up

Atlético-MG13%24%+11 pts
Vitória21%30%+9 pts
Mirassol14%19%+5 pts

Down

Corinthians30%20%−10 pts
Internacional36%29%−7 pts
Athletico-PR13%7%−6 pts

Atlético-MG lost 4–0 to Flamengo at home, and their relegation chances rose from 13% to 24%. Corinthians beat Vasco 1–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 30% to 20%.

Changes since Matchday 11, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Atlético Mineiro

0–4

Flamengo

Atlético-MG 0–4 Flamengo moved the odds the most. Atlético-MG lost 4–0 to Flamengo at home, and their relegation chances rose from 13% to 24%. Flamengo won 4–0 at Atlético-MG, and their title chances rose from 44% to 52%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Fluminense
Botafogo
São Paulo

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%
5	61%	28%	3%	1%	4%
6	63%	30%	2%	1%	2%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	1%
9	27%	68%	3%	1%	2%
10	39%	57%	2%	<1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	32	47%−5 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	26	52%+8 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	26	1%−1 pt	84%+1 pt	<1%±0
4	São PauloSão Paulo	23	<1%±0	59%+12 pts	<1%±0
5	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	22	0%±0	7%+3 pts	7%−6 pts
6	BahiaBahia	21	<1%−1 pt	54%−8 pts	<1%±0
7	CoritibaCoritiba	19	0%±0	3%−1 pt	16%+4 pts
8	BotafogoBotafogo	17	<1%±0	54%−8 pts	<1%±0
9	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	17	0%±0	7%−3 pts	7%+2 pts
10	VascoVasco	16	0%±0	5%−2 pts	11%+3 pts
11	GrêmioGrêmio	16	<1%±0	5%+2 pts	11%−5 pts
12	CruzeiroCruzeiro	16	0%±0	12%+5 pts	4%−4 pts
13	VitóriaVitória	15	0%±0	1%−1 pt	30%+9 pts
14	CorinthiansCorinthians	15	0%±0	2%+1 pt	20%−10 pts
15	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	14	0%±0	2%−2 pts	24%+11 pts
16	InternacionalInternacional	14	0%±0	1%±0	29%−7 pts
17	SantosSantos	14	0%±0	2%+1 pt	27%−4 pts
18	MirassolMirassol	9	0%±0	3%−1 pt	19%+5 pts
19	RemoRemo	8	0%±0	0%±0	96%+3 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	8	0%±0	0%±0	98%−1 pt

Chances after Matchday 12, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 11 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%
5	61%	28%	3%	1%	4%
6	63%	30%	2%	1%	2%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	1%
9	27%	68%	3%	1%	2%
10	39%	57%	2%	<1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%
5	61%	28%	3%	1%	4%
6	63%	30%	2%	1%	2%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	1%
9	27%	68%	3%	1%	2%
10	39%	57%	2%	<1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%
5	61%	28%	3%	1%	4%
6	63%	30%	2%	1%	2%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	1%
9	27%	68%	3%	1%	2%
10	39%	57%	2%	<1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%