Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 10 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo27%39%+12 pts
Bahia<1%1%+1 pt

Down

Palmeiras68%57%−11 pts
Fluminense3%2%−1 pt
São Paulo2%1%−1 pt

Flamengo won 2–1 at Fluminense, and their title chances rose from 27% to 39%. Palmeiras drew 0–0 at Corinthians, and their title chances fell from 68% to 57%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 57%.

Libertadores

Up

Bahia47%70%+23 pts
Athletico-PR2%5%+3 pts
Vitória1%4%+3 pts

Down

São Paulo72%61%−11 pts
Botafogo54%45%−9 pts
Fluminense79%73%−6 pts

Bahia won 2–1 at Mirassol, and their Libertadores chances rose from 47% to 70%. São Paulo lost 2–0 at Vitória, and their Libertadores chances fell from 72% to 61%.

Relegation

Up

Mirassol15%27%+12 pts
Internacional18%24%+6 pts
Chapecoense93%96%+3 pts

Down

Vitória30%17%−13 pts
Santos30%22%−8 pts
Cruzeiro21%16%−5 pts

Mirassol lost 2–1 to Bahia at home, and their relegation chances rose from 15% to 27%. Vitória beat São Paulo 2–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 30% to 17%.

Changes since Matchday 9, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Mirassol

1–2

Bahia

Mirassol 1–2 Bahia moved the odds the most. Mirassol lost 2–1 to Bahia at home, and their relegation chances rose from 15% to 27%. Bahia won 2–1 at Mirassol, and their Libertadores chances rose from 47% to 70%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
Bahia
São Paulo

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	São Paulo
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	1%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	1%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	4%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	4%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	2%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	2%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	26	57%−11 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	20	39%+12 pts	99%+1 pt	0%±0
3	São PauloSão Paulo	20	1%−1 pt	61%−11 pts	<1%±0
4	FluminenseFluminense	20	2%−1 pt	73%−6 pts	<1%±0
5	BahiaBahia	20	1%+1 pt	70%+23 pts	<1%±0
6	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	19	0%±0	5%+3 pts	14%−5 pts
7	CoritibaCoritiba	16	0%±0	2%+1 pt	24%−2 pts
8	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	14	<1%±0	10%−3 pts	7%+3 pts
9	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	14	0%±0	7%−1 pt	9%+2 pts
10	VitóriaVitória	14	0%±0	4%+3 pts	17%−13 pts
11	BotafogoBotafogo	13	<1%−1 pt	45%−9 pts	1%+1 pt
12	GrêmioGrêmio	13	0%±0	7%±0	11%+2 pts
13	VascoVasco	13	<1%±0	5%±0	14%+3 pts
14	InternacionalInternacional	13	0%±0	2%±0	24%+6 pts
15	SantosSantos	13	<1%±0	3%+2 pts	22%−8 pts
16	CorinthiansCorinthians	11	0%±0	1%±0	29%±0
17	CruzeiroCruzeiro	10	0%±0	4%+1 pt	16%−5 pts
18	RemoRemo	8	0%±0	0%±0	90%+3 pts
19	ChapecoenseChapecoense	8	0%±0	0%±0	96%+3 pts
20	MirassolMirassol	6	0%±0	2%−2 pts	27%+12 pts

Chances after Matchday 10, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 9 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	São Paulo
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	1%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	1%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	4%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	4%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	2%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	2%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	São Paulo
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	1%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	1%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	4%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	4%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	2%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	2%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	São Paulo
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	1%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	1%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	4%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	4%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	2%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	2%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	1%