Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 18 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Palmeiras61%62%+1 pt

Down

–

Palmeiras won 3–1 at Coritiba, and their title chances rose from 61% to 62%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 62%.

Libertadores

Up

Athletico-PR19%33%+14 pts
Cruzeiro15%24%+9 pts
Corinthians10%16%+6 pts

Down

São Paulo26%12%−14 pts
Fluminense74%69%−5 pts
Botafogo35%31%−4 pts

Athletico-PR won 2–1 at São Paulo, and their Libertadores chances rose from 19% to 33%. São Paulo lost 2–1 to Athletico-PR at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 26% to 12%.

Relegation

Up

Internacional26%35%+9 pts
Remo82%89%+7 pts
Vasco41%48%+7 pts

Down

Mirassol38%27%−11 pts
Vitória21%11%−10 pts
Corinthians8%3%−5 pts

Internacional lost 2–1 to Cruzeiro at home, and their relegation chances rose from 26% to 35%. Mirassol beat Grêmio 2–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 38% to 27%.

Changes since Matchday 17, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

São Paulo

1–2

Athletico Paranaense

São Paulo 1–2 Athletico-PR moved the odds the most. São Paulo lost 2–1 to Athletico-PR at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 26% to 12%. Athletico-PR won 2–1 at São Paulo, and their Libertadores chances rose from 19% to 33%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
Bragantino
Bahia

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bragantino	Bahia
1	18%	44%	3%	<1%	2%
2	38%	34%	4%	<1%	2%
3	46%	34%	4%	<1%	3%
4	34%	47%	6%	<1%	1%
5	28%	61%	3%	0%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	0%	3%
7	44%	51%	2%	0%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	<1%	2%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	0%	1%
11	52%	44%	2%	<1%	1%
12	47%	52%	1%	0%	<1%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	0%	<1%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	44	62%+1 pt	100%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	37	38%±0	>99%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	33	<1%±0	33%+14 pts	1%−2 pts
4	FluminenseFluminense	32	<1%±0	69%−5 pts	<1%±0
5	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	30	<1%±0	46%−1 pt	<1%−1 pt
6	BahiaBahia	30	<1%±0	44%+4 pts	<1%−1 pt
7	CorinthiansCorinthians	27	0%±0	16%+6 pts	3%−5 pts
8	CruzeiroCruzeiro	27	0%±0	24%+9 pts	2%−3 pts
9	BotafogoBotafogo	26	<1%±0	31%−4 pts	1%−1 pt
10	CoritibaCoritiba	26	0%±0	4%−2 pts	14%+3 pts
11	VitóriaVitória	26	0%±0	5%+1 pt	11%−10 pts
12	São PauloSão Paulo	25	0%±0	12%−14 pts	4%+2 pts
13	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	25	0%±0	10%−4 pts	6%+1 pt
14	InternacionalInternacional	21	0%±0	1%−1 pt	35%+9 pts
15	SantosSantos	21	0%±0	1%−1 pt	33%+2 pts
16	GrêmioGrêmio	21	0%±0	2%−1 pt	27%+3 pts
17	VascoVasco	20	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	48%+7 pts
18	MirassolMirassol	19	0%±0	2%+1 pt	27%−11 pts
19	RemoRemo	18	0%±0	0%±0	89%+7 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	9	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 18, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 17 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bragantino	Bahia
1	18%	44%	3%	<1%	2%
2	38%	34%	4%	<1%	2%
3	46%	34%	4%	<1%	3%
4	34%	47%	6%	<1%	1%
5	28%	61%	3%	0%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	0%	3%
7	44%	51%	2%	0%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	<1%	2%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	0%	1%
11	52%	44%	2%	<1%	1%
12	47%	52%	1%	0%	<1%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	0%	<1%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bragantino	Bahia
1	18%	44%	3%	<1%	2%
2	38%	34%	4%	<1%	2%
3	46%	34%	4%	<1%	3%
4	34%	47%	6%	<1%	1%
5	28%	61%	3%	0%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	0%	3%
7	44%	51%	2%	0%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	<1%	2%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	0%	1%
11	52%	44%	2%	<1%	1%
12	47%	52%	1%	0%	<1%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	0%	<1%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bragantino	Bahia
1	18%	44%	3%	<1%	2%
2	38%	34%	4%	<1%	2%
3	46%	34%	4%	<1%	3%
4	34%	47%	6%	<1%	1%
5	28%	61%	3%	0%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	0%	3%
7	44%	51%	2%	0%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	<1%	2%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	0%	1%
11	52%	44%	2%	<1%	1%
12	47%	52%	1%	0%	<1%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	0%	<1%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%