Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 21 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo27%39%+12 pts

Down

Palmeiras73%61%−12 pts

Flamengo beat Vitória 2–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 27% to 39%. Palmeiras drew 0–0 with Internacional at home, and their title chances fell from 73% to 61%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 61%.

Libertadores

Up

Athletico-PR48%69%+21 pts
Corinthians10%21%+11 pts
Cruzeiro22%32%+10 pts

Down

Bragantino36%21%−15 pts
Bahia38%28%−10 pts
Botafogo45%38%−7 pts

Athletico-PR won 2–0 at Santos, and their Libertadores chances rose from 48% to 69%. Bragantino lost 2–0 to Corinthians at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 36% to 21%.

Relegation

Up

Santos40%56%+16 pts
Mirassol18%25%+7 pts
Vitória24%26%+2 pts

Down

Grêmio27%15%−12 pts
Coritiba17%10%−7 pts
Internacional39%34%−5 pts

Santos lost 2–0 to Athletico-PR at home, and their relegation chances rose from 40% to 56%. Grêmio beat São Paulo 2–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 27% to 15%.

Changes since Matchday 20, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Santos

0–2

Athletico Paranaense

Santos 0–2 Athletico-PR moved the odds the most. Santos lost 2–0 to Athletico-PR at home, and their relegation chances rose from 40% to 56%. Athletico-PR won 2–0 at Santos, and their Libertadores chances rose from 48% to 69%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Athletico-PR
Fluminense
Botafogo

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	0%	3%	20%
2	38%	34%	0%	4%	12%
3	46%	34%	<1%	4%	6%
4	34%	47%	0%	6%	5%
5	28%	61%	0%	3%	1%
6	30%	63%	0%	2%	1%
7	44%	51%	<1%	2%	1%
8	61%	30%	<1%	6%	1%
9	68%	27%	0%	3%	1%
10	57%	39%	0%	2%	<1%
11	52%	44%	0%	2%	<1%
12	47%	52%	0%	1%	<1%
13	49%	50%	0%	1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	34%	64%	0%	1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	48	61%−12 pts	100%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	42	39%+12 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	40	<1%±0	69%+21 pts	0%±0
4	FluminenseFluminense	35	<1%±0	59%+1 pt	<1%±0
5	CruzeiroCruzeiro	33	<1%±0	32%+10 pts	<1%−1 pt
6	BahiaBahia	33	<1%±0	28%−10 pts	<1%±0
7	CorinthiansCorinthians	32	0%±0	21%+11 pts	1%−2 pts
8	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	31	0%±0	21%−15 pts	1%+1 pt
9	BotafogoBotafogo	30	<1%±0	38%−7 pts	<1%±0
10	CoritibaCoritiba	30	0%±0	2%±0	10%−7 pts
11	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	29	0%±0	18%−3 pts	1%±0
12	São PauloSão Paulo	26	0%±0	9%−6 pts	4%+1 pt
13	VitóriaVitória	26	0%±0	1%±0	26%+2 pts
14	GrêmioGrêmio	25	0%±0	2%+1 pt	15%−12 pts
15	MirassolMirassol	23	0%±0	1%−1 pt	25%+7 pts
16	InternacionalInternacional	23	0%±0	<1%±0	34%−5 pts
17	SantosSantos	22	0%±0	<1%±0	56%+16 pts
18	VascoVasco	22	0%±0	<1%±0	45%−2 pts
19	RemoRemo	22	0%±0	<1%±0	81%+1 pt
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	10	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 21, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 20 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	0%	3%	20%
2	38%	34%	0%	4%	12%
3	46%	34%	<1%	4%	6%
4	34%	47%	0%	6%	5%
5	28%	61%	0%	3%	1%
6	30%	63%	0%	2%	1%
7	44%	51%	<1%	2%	1%
8	61%	30%	<1%	6%	1%
9	68%	27%	0%	3%	1%
10	57%	39%	0%	2%	<1%
11	52%	44%	0%	2%	<1%
12	47%	52%	0%	1%	<1%
13	49%	50%	0%	1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	34%	64%	0%	1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	0%	3%	20%
2	38%	34%	0%	4%	12%
3	46%	34%	<1%	4%	6%
4	34%	47%	0%	6%	5%
5	28%	61%	0%	3%	1%
6	30%	63%	0%	2%	1%
7	44%	51%	<1%	2%	1%
8	61%	30%	<1%	6%	1%
9	68%	27%	0%	3%	1%
10	57%	39%	0%	2%	<1%
11	52%	44%	0%	2%	<1%
12	47%	52%	0%	1%	<1%
13	49%	50%	0%	1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	34%	64%	0%	1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	0%	3%	20%
2	38%	34%	0%	4%	12%
3	46%	34%	<1%	4%	6%
4	34%	47%	0%	6%	5%
5	28%	61%	0%	3%	1%
6	30%	63%	0%	2%	1%
7	44%	51%	<1%	2%	1%
8	61%	30%	<1%	6%	1%
9	68%	27%	0%	3%	1%
10	57%	39%	0%	2%	<1%
11	52%	44%	0%	2%	<1%
12	47%	52%	0%	1%	<1%
13	49%	50%	0%	1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	0%	<1%	<1%
15	34%	64%	0%	1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	<1%	1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%