Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 19 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo38%43%+5 pts

Down

Palmeiras62%56%−6 pts

Flamengo drew 1–1 with São Paulo at home, and their title chances rose from 38% to 43%. Palmeiras lost 2–1 to Atlético-MG at home, and their title chances fell from 62% to 56%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 56%.

Libertadores

Up

Athletico-PR33%47%+14 pts
Botafogo31%45%+14 pts
Atlético-MG10%21%+11 pts

Down

Bragantino46%35%−11 pts
Cruzeiro24%13%−11 pts
Bahia44%36%−8 pts

Athletico-PR beat Internacional 2–0 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 33% to 47%. Bragantino drew 0–0 with Coritiba at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 46% to 35%.

Relegation

Up

Santos33%42%+9 pts
Internacional35%43%+8 pts
Vitória11%16%+5 pts

Down

Remo89%76%−13 pts
Atlético-MG6%1%−5 pts
Coritiba14%11%−3 pts

Santos drew 2–2 with Chapecoense at home, and their relegation chances rose from 33% to 42%. Remo beat Vitória 2–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 89% to 76%.

Changes since Matchday 18, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Cruzeiro

0–1

Botafogo

Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo moved the odds the most. Cruzeiro lost 1–0 to Botafogo at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 24% to 13%. Botafogo won 1–0 at Cruzeiro, and their Libertadores chances rose from 31% to 45%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
Athletico-PR
Bragantino

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Athletico-PR	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	0%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	0%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	<1%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	0%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	0%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	0%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	<1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	<1%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	0%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	0%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	0%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	0%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	0%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	0%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	0%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	0%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	44	56%−6 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	38	43%+5 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	36	<1%±0	47%+14 pts	<1%−1 pt
4	FluminenseFluminense	33	<1%±0	65%−4 pts	<1%±0
5	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	31	<1%±0	35%−11 pts	<1%±0
6	BahiaBahia	31	<1%±0	36%−8 pts	<1%±0
7	BotafogoBotafogo	29	<1%±0	45%+14 pts	<1%−1 pt
8	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	28	0%±0	21%+11 pts	1%−5 pts
9	CorinthiansCorinthians	28	0%±0	14%−2 pts	2%−1 pt
10	CoritibaCoritiba	27	0%±0	4%±0	11%−3 pts
11	CruzeiroCruzeiro	27	0%±0	13%−11 pts	3%+1 pt
12	São PauloSão Paulo	26	<1%±0	14%+2 pts	2%−2 pts
13	VitóriaVitória	26	0%±0	2%−3 pts	16%+5 pts
14	SantosSantos	22	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	42%+9 pts
15	GrêmioGrêmio	22	0%±0	1%−1 pt	27%±0
16	InternacionalInternacional	21	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	43%+8 pts
17	VascoVasco	21	0%±0	<1%±0	50%+2 pts
18	RemoRemo	21	0%±0	<1%±0	76%−13 pts
19	MirassolMirassol	20	0%±0	1%−1 pt	25%−2 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	10	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 19, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 18 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Athletico-PR	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	0%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	0%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	<1%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	0%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	0%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	0%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	<1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	<1%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	0%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	0%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	0%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	0%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	0%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	0%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	0%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	0%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Athletico-PR	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	0%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	0%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	<1%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	0%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	0%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	0%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	<1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	<1%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	0%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	0%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	0%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	0%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	0%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	0%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	0%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	0%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Athletico-PR	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	0%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	0%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	<1%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	0%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	0%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	0%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	<1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	<1%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	0%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	0%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	0%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	0%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	0%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	0%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	0%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	0%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%