Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 15 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Fluminense<1%1%+1 pt

Down

Palmeiras36%34%−2 pts

Fluminense beat São Paulo 2–1 at home, and their title chances rose from <1% to 1%. Palmeiras drew 1–1 with Cruzeiro at home, and their title chances fell from 36% to 34%. Flamengo lead the title race at 64%.

Libertadores

Up

Botafogo35%46%+12 pts
Fluminense75%83%+8 pts
Atlético-MG6%12%+6 pts

Down

São Paulo55%45%−10 pts
Bahia51%41%−10 pts
Vasco14%7%−7 pts

Botafogo beat Corinthians 3–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 35% to 46%. São Paulo lost 2–1 at Fluminense, and their Libertadores chances fell from 55% to 45%.

Relegation

Up

Santos17%34%+17 pts
Mirassol26%39%+13 pts
Corinthians19%27%+8 pts

Down

Coritiba35%16%−19 pts
Internacional21%11%−10 pts
Remo90%82%−8 pts

Santos lost 3–0 to Coritiba at home, and their relegation chances rose from 17% to 34%. Coritiba won 3–0 at Santos, and their relegation chances fell from 35% to 16%.

Changes since Matchday 14, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Santos

0–3

Coritiba

Santos 0–3 Coritiba moved the odds the most. Santos lost 3–0 to Coritiba at home, and their relegation chances rose from 17% to 34%. Coritiba won 3–0 at Santos, and their relegation chances fell from 35% to 16%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Fluminense
Botafogo
São Paulo

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%
5	61%	28%	3%	1%	4%
6	63%	30%	2%	1%	2%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	1%
9	27%	68%	3%	1%	2%
10	39%	57%	2%	<1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	35	34%−2 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	31	64%±0	>99%±0	0%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	30	1%+1 pt	83%+8 pts	<1%±0
4	São PauloSão Paulo	24	<1%±0	45%−10 pts	1%+1 pt
5	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	24	0%±0	7%+1 pt	12%−2 pts
6	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	23	<1%±0	15%+5 pts	5%−5 pts
7	BahiaBahia	23	<1%±0	41%−10 pts	1%±0
8	CoritibaCoritiba	23	0%±0	5%+3 pts	16%−19 pts
9	BotafogoBotafogo	21	<1%±0	46%+12 pts	1%−1 pt
10	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	21	0%±0	12%+6 pts	8%−7 pts
11	InternacionalInternacional	21	0%±0	9%+5 pts	11%−10 pts
12	VascoVasco	20	0%±0	7%−7 pts	14%+7 pts
13	CruzeiroCruzeiro	20	<1%±0	17%+2 pts	5%−1 pt
14	VitóriaVitória	19	0%±0	3%−3 pts	25%+8 pts
15	GrêmioGrêmio	18	0%±0	5%±0	19%−2 pts
16	SantosSantos	18	0%±0	2%−5 pts	34%+17 pts
17	CorinthiansCorinthians	18	0%±0	2%−2 pts	27%+8 pts
18	RemoRemo	15	0%±0	<1%±0	82%−8 pts
19	MirassolMirassol	13	0%±0	2%−2 pts	39%+13 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	9	0%±0	0%±0	>99%+1 pt

Chances after Matchday 15, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 14 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%
5	61%	28%	3%	1%	4%
6	63%	30%	2%	1%	2%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	1%
9	27%	68%	3%	1%	2%
10	39%	57%	2%	<1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%
5	61%	28%	3%	1%	4%
6	63%	30%	2%	1%	2%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	1%
9	27%	68%	3%	1%	2%
10	39%	57%	2%	<1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Botafogo	São Paulo
1	44%	18%	3%	20%	1%
2	34%	38%	4%	12%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	6%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	5%	4%
5	61%	28%	3%	1%	4%
6	63%	30%	2%	1%	2%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	1%
9	27%	68%	3%	1%	2%
10	39%	57%	2%	<1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	64%	34%	1%	<1%	<1%