Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 11 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo39%44%+5 pts

Down

Palmeiras57%52%−5 pts
São Paulo1%<1%−1 pt

Flamengo beat Bahia 2–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 39% to 44%. Palmeiras beat Athletico-PR 1–0 at home, and their title chances fell from 57% to 52%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 52%.

Libertadores

Up

Botafogo45%62%+17 pts
Fluminense73%83%+10 pts
Bragantino7%10%+3 pts

Down

São Paulo61%47%−14 pts
Bahia70%62%−8 pts
Atlético-MG10%4%−6 pts

Botafogo won 4–1 at Chapecoense, and their Libertadores chances rose from 45% to 62%. São Paulo lost 2–1 at Vasco, and their Libertadores chances fell from 61% to 47%.

Relegation

Up

Internacional24%36%+12 pts
Santos22%31%+9 pts
Atlético-MG7%13%+6 pts

Down

Mirassol27%14%−13 pts
Coritiba24%12%−12 pts
Cruzeiro16%8%−8 pts

Internacional lost 2–1 to Mirassol at home, and their relegation chances rose from 24% to 36%. Mirassol won 2–1 at Internacional, and their relegation chances fell from 27% to 14%.

Changes since Matchday 10, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Internacional

1–2

Mirassol

Internacional 1–2 Mirassol moved the odds the most. Internacional lost 2–1 to Mirassol at home, and their relegation chances rose from 24% to 36%. Mirassol won 2–1 at Internacional, and their relegation chances fell from 27% to 14%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
Bahia
Botafogo

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	20%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	12%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	6%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	5%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	1%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	1%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	<1%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	29	52%−5 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	23	44%+5 pts	>99%+1 pt	0%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	23	2%±0	83%+10 pts	0%±0
4	São PauloSão Paulo	20	<1%−1 pt	47%−14 pts	<1%±0
5	BahiaBahia	20	1%±0	62%−8 pts	<1%±0
6	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	19	0%±0	4%−1 pt	13%−1 pt
7	CoritibaCoritiba	19	0%±0	4%+2 pts	12%−12 pts
8	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	17	<1%±0	10%+3 pts	5%−4 pts
9	BotafogoBotafogo	16	<1%±0	62%+17 pts	<1%−1 pt
10	VascoVasco	16	0%±0	7%+2 pts	8%−6 pts
11	VitóriaVitória	15	0%±0	2%−2 pts	21%+4 pts
12	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	14	0%±0	4%−6 pts	13%+6 pts
13	GrêmioGrêmio	13	0%±0	3%−4 pts	16%+5 pts
14	InternacionalInternacional	13	0%±0	1%−1 pt	36%+12 pts
15	SantosSantos	13	0%±0	1%−2 pts	31%+9 pts
16	CruzeiroCruzeiro	13	<1%±0	7%+3 pts	8%−8 pts
17	CorinthiansCorinthians	12	0%±0	1%±0	30%+1 pt
18	MirassolMirassol	9	0%±0	4%+2 pts	14%−13 pts
19	RemoRemo	8	0%±0	<1%±0	93%+3 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	8	0%±0	0%±0	99%+3 pts

Chances after Matchday 11, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 10 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	20%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	12%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	6%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	5%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	1%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	1%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	<1%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	<1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	20%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	12%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	6%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	5%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	1%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	1%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	<1%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	20%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	12%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	6%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	5%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	1%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	1%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	<1%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	<1%