Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 13 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Palmeiras47%49%+2 pts

Down

Flamengo52%50%−2 pts

Palmeiras drew 1–1 with Santos at home, and their title chances rose from 47% to 49%. Flamengo drew 2–2 with Vasco at home, and their title chances fell from 52% to 50%. Flamengo lead the title race at 50%.

Libertadores

Up

Bahia54%62%+8 pts
Bragantino7%14%+7 pts
Vasco5%9%+4 pts

Down

Botafogo54%32%−22 pts
Fluminense84%78%−6 pts
Cruzeiro12%6%−6 pts

Bahia drew 2–2 at São Paulo, and their Libertadores chances rose from 54% to 62%. Botafogo lost 2–1 to Remo at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 54% to 32%.

Relegation

Up

Coritiba16%32%+16 pts
Corinthians20%31%+11 pts
Cruzeiro4%13%+9 pts

Down

Vitória30%19%−11 pts
Atlético-MG24%13%−11 pts
Internacional29%19%−10 pts

Coritiba lost 4–1 at Vitória, and their relegation chances rose from 16% to 32%. Vitória beat Coritiba 4–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 30% to 19%.

Changes since Matchday 12, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Vitória

4–1

Coritiba

Vitória 4–1 Coritiba moved the odds the most. Vitória beat Coritiba 4–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 30% to 19%. Coritiba lost 4–1 at Vitória, and their relegation chances rose from 16% to 32%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Fluminense
São Paulo
Bahia

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	São Paulo	Bahia
1	44%	18%	3%	1%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	1%	2%
3	34%	46%	4%	1%	3%
4	47%	34%	6%	4%	1%
5	61%	28%	3%	4%	1%
6	63%	30%	2%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	2%
9	27%	68%	3%	2%	<1%
10	39%	57%	2%	1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	33	49%+2 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	27	50%−2 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	26	1%±0	78%−6 pts	<1%±0
4	São PauloSão Paulo	24	<1%±0	60%+1 pt	<1%±0
5	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	23	0%±0	7%±0	10%+3 pts
6	BahiaBahia	22	<1%±0	62%+8 pts	<1%±0
7	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	20	<1%±0	14%+7 pts	6%−1 pt
8	CoritibaCoritiba	19	0%±0	2%−1 pt	32%+16 pts
9	VitóriaVitória	18	0%±0	4%+3 pts	19%−11 pts
10	BotafogoBotafogo	17	<1%±0	32%−22 pts	2%+2 pts
11	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	17	0%±0	6%+4 pts	13%−11 pts
12	InternacionalInternacional	17	0%±0	4%+3 pts	19%−10 pts
13	VascoVasco	17	0%±0	9%+4 pts	10%−1 pt
14	GrêmioGrêmio	17	0%±0	5%±0	15%+4 pts
15	CruzeiroCruzeiro	16	0%±0	6%−6 pts	13%+9 pts
16	SantosSantos	15	0%±0	3%+1 pt	25%−2 pts
17	CorinthiansCorinthians	15	0%±0	2%±0	31%+11 pts
18	MirassolMirassol	12	0%±0	6%+3 pts	16%−3 pts
19	RemoRemo	11	0%±0	<1%±0	90%−6 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	8	0%±0	0%±0	99%+1 pt

Chances after Matchday 13, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 12 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	São Paulo	Bahia
1	44%	18%	3%	1%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	1%	2%
3	34%	46%	4%	1%	3%
4	47%	34%	6%	4%	1%
5	61%	28%	3%	4%	1%
6	63%	30%	2%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	2%
9	27%	68%	3%	2%	<1%
10	39%	57%	2%	1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	São Paulo	Bahia
1	44%	18%	3%	1%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	1%	2%
3	34%	46%	4%	1%	3%
4	47%	34%	6%	4%	1%
5	61%	28%	3%	4%	1%
6	63%	30%	2%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	2%
9	27%	68%	3%	2%	<1%
10	39%	57%	2%	1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	São Paulo	Bahia
1	44%	18%	3%	1%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	1%	2%
3	34%	46%	4%	1%	3%
4	47%	34%	6%	4%	1%
5	61%	28%	3%	4%	1%
6	63%	30%	2%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	2%
9	27%	68%	3%	2%	<1%
10	39%	57%	2%	1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%