Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 14 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo50%64%+14 pts

Down

Palmeiras49%36%−13 pts
Fluminense1%<1%−1 pt

Flamengo won 1–0 at Grêmio, and their title chances rose from 50% to 64%. Palmeiras drew 1–1 at Remo, and their title chances fell from 49% to 36%. Flamengo lead the title race at 64%.

Libertadores

Up

Cruzeiro6%15%+9 pts
Vasco9%14%+5 pts
Santos3%7%+4 pts

Down

Bahia62%51%−11 pts
São Paulo60%55%−5 pts
Bragantino14%10%−4 pts

Cruzeiro won 2–1 at Bahia, and their Libertadores chances rose from 6% to 15%. Bahia lost 2–1 to Cruzeiro at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 62% to 51%.

Relegation

Up

Mirassol16%26%+10 pts
Grêmio15%21%+6 pts
Athletico-PR10%14%+4 pts

Down

Corinthians31%19%−12 pts
Santos25%17%−8 pts
Cruzeiro13%6%−7 pts

Mirassol drew 1–1 with Chapecoense at home, and their relegation chances rose from 16% to 26%. Corinthians beat São Paulo 3–2 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 31% to 19%.

Changes since Matchday 13, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Bahia

1–2

Cruzeiro

Bahia 1–2 Cruzeiro moved the odds the most. Bahia lost 2–1 to Cruzeiro at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 62% to 51%. Cruzeiro won 2–1 at Bahia, and their Libertadores chances rose from 6% to 15%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Fluminense
São Paulo
Bahia

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	São Paulo	Bahia
1	44%	18%	3%	1%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	1%	2%
3	34%	46%	4%	1%	3%
4	47%	34%	6%	4%	1%
5	61%	28%	3%	4%	1%
6	63%	30%	2%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	2%
9	27%	68%	3%	2%	<1%
10	39%	57%	2%	1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	34	36%−13 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	30	64%+14 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	27	<1%−1 pt	75%−3 pts	<1%±0
4	São PauloSão Paulo	24	<1%±0	55%−5 pts	<1%±0
5	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	23	0%±0	6%−1 pt	14%+4 pts
6	BahiaBahia	22	<1%±0	51%−11 pts	1%+1 pt
7	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	20	0%±0	10%−4 pts	10%+4 pts
8	VascoVasco	20	0%±0	14%+5 pts	7%−3 pts
9	CoritibaCoritiba	20	0%±0	2%±0	35%+3 pts
10	VitóriaVitória	19	0%±0	6%+2 pts	17%−2 pts
11	CruzeiroCruzeiro	19	0%±0	15%+9 pts	6%−7 pts
12	BotafogoBotafogo	18	<1%±0	35%+3 pts	2%±0
13	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	18	<1%±0	6%±0	15%+2 pts
14	InternacionalInternacional	18	0%±0	4%±0	21%+2 pts
15	SantosSantos	18	0%±0	7%+4 pts	17%−8 pts
16	CorinthiansCorinthians	18	0%±0	4%+2 pts	19%−12 pts
17	GrêmioGrêmio	17	0%±0	5%±0	21%+6 pts
18	MirassolMirassol	13	0%±0	4%−2 pts	26%+10 pts
19	RemoRemo	12	0%±0	0%±0	90%±0
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	9	0%±0	0%±0	99%±0

Chances after Matchday 14, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 13 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	São Paulo	Bahia
1	44%	18%	3%	1%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	1%	2%
3	34%	46%	4%	1%	3%
4	47%	34%	6%	4%	1%
5	61%	28%	3%	4%	1%
6	63%	30%	2%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	2%
9	27%	68%	3%	2%	<1%
10	39%	57%	2%	1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	São Paulo	Bahia
1	44%	18%	3%	1%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	1%	2%
3	34%	46%	4%	1%	3%
4	47%	34%	6%	4%	1%
5	61%	28%	3%	4%	1%
6	63%	30%	2%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	2%
9	27%	68%	3%	2%	<1%
10	39%	57%	2%	1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	São Paulo	Bahia
1	44%	18%	3%	1%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	1%	2%
3	34%	46%	4%	1%	3%
4	47%	34%	6%	4%	1%
5	61%	28%	3%	4%	1%
6	63%	30%	2%	2%	3%
7	51%	44%	2%	1%	1%
8	30%	61%	6%	1%	2%
9	27%	68%	3%	2%	<1%
10	39%	57%	2%	1%	1%
11	44%	52%	2%	<1%	1%
12	52%	47%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	50%	49%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	64%	36%	<1%	<1%	<1%