Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 9 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Palmeiras61%68%+7 pts
São Paulo1%2%+1 pt

Down

Flamengo30%27%−3 pts
Fluminense6%3%−3 pts
Bahia2%<1%−2 pts

Palmeiras won 2–1 at Bahia, and their title chances rose from 61% to 68%. Flamengo beat Santos 3–1 at home, and their title chances fell from 30% to 27%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 68%.

Libertadores

Up

São Paulo53%72%+19 pts
Botafogo42%54%+12 pts
Bragantino4%8%+4 pts

Down

Bahia60%47%−13 pts
Mirassol11%4%−7 pts
Grêmio13%7%−6 pts

São Paulo beat Cruzeiro 4–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 53% to 72%. Bahia lost 2–1 to Palmeiras at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 60% to 47%.

Relegation

Up

Corinthians19%29%+10 pts
Cruzeiro12%21%+9 pts
Mirassol8%15%+7 pts

Down

Internacional36%18%−18 pts
Bragantino17%7%−10 pts
Remo90%87%−3 pts

Corinthians lost 1–0 to Internacional at home, and their relegation chances rose from 19% to 29%. Internacional won 1–0 at Corinthians, and their relegation chances fell from 36% to 18%.

Changes since Matchday 8, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

São Paulo

4–1

Cruzeiro

São Paulo 4–1 Cruzeiro moved the odds the most. São Paulo beat Cruzeiro 4–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 53% to 72%. Cruzeiro lost 4–1 at São Paulo, and their relegation chances rose from 12% to 21%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
São Paulo
Botafogo

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	São Paulo	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	3%	1%	20%
2	38%	34%	4%	1%	12%
3	46%	34%	4%	1%	6%
4	34%	47%	6%	4%	5%
5	28%	61%	3%	4%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	2%	1%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	1%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	2%	1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	25	68%+7 pts	>99%+1 pt	0%±0
2	São PauloSão Paulo	20	2%+1 pt	72%+19 pts	<1%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	20	3%−3 pts	79%−3 pts	<1%±0
4	FlamengoFlamengo	17	27%−3 pts	98%+1 pt	0%±0
5	BahiaBahia	17	<1%−2 pts	47%−13 pts	<1%±0
6	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	16	0%±0	2%−1 pt	19%+1 pt
7	CoritibaCoritiba	15	0%±0	1%±0	26%−2 pts
8	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	14	<1%±0	13%+3 pts	4%−3 pts
9	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	14	<1%±0	8%+4 pts	7%−10 pts
10	BotafogoBotafogo	12	1%±0	54%+12 pts	<1%−1 pt
11	GrêmioGrêmio	12	0%±0	7%−6 pts	9%+3 pts
12	VascoVasco	12	0%±0	5%−6 pts	11%+4 pts
13	InternacionalInternacional	12	0%±0	2%+1 pt	18%−18 pts
14	VitóriaVitória	11	0%±0	1%±0	30%±0
15	SantosSantos	10	0%±0	1%±0	30%+1 pt
16	CorinthiansCorinthians	10	0%±0	1%−3 pts	29%+10 pts
17	ChapecoenseChapecoense	8	0%±0	<1%±0	93%+1 pt
18	RemoRemo	7	0%±0	0%±0	87%−3 pts
19	CruzeiroCruzeiro	7	0%±0	3%−3 pts	21%+9 pts
20	MirassolMirassol	6	0%±0	4%−7 pts	15%+7 pts

Chances after Matchday 9, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 8 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	São Paulo	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	3%	1%	20%
2	38%	34%	4%	1%	12%
3	46%	34%	4%	1%	6%
4	34%	47%	6%	4%	5%
5	28%	61%	3%	4%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	2%	1%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	1%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	2%	1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	São Paulo	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	3%	1%	20%
2	38%	34%	4%	1%	12%
3	46%	34%	4%	1%	6%
4	34%	47%	6%	4%	5%
5	28%	61%	3%	4%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	2%	1%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	1%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	2%	1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	São Paulo	Botafogo
1	18%	44%	3%	1%	20%
2	38%	34%	4%	1%	12%
3	46%	34%	4%	1%	6%
4	34%	47%	6%	4%	5%
5	28%	61%	3%	4%	1%
6	30%	63%	2%	2%	1%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	1%
8	61%	30%	6%	1%	1%
9	68%	27%	3%	2%	1%