Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 22 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo39%60%+21 pts

Down

Palmeiras61%40%−21 pts

Flamengo won 5–1 at Mirassol, and their title chances rose from 39% to 60%. Palmeiras lost 3–2 at Fluminense, and their title chances fell from 61% to 40%. Flamengo lead the title race at 60%.

Libertadores

Up

Fluminense59%74%+15 pts
Cruzeiro32%47%+15 pts
Atlético-MG18%29%+11 pts

Down

Botafogo38%25%−13 pts
Corinthians21%11%−10 pts
Bahia28%20%−8 pts

Fluminense beat Palmeiras 3–2 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 59% to 74%. Botafogo lost 1–0 at Vitória, and their Libertadores chances fell from 38% to 25%.

Relegation

Up

Vasco45%63%+18 pts
Mirassol25%35%+10 pts
Grêmio15%22%+7 pts

Down

Santos56%31%−25 pts
Vitória26%13%−13 pts
Remo81%79%−2 pts

Vasco lost 3–0 to Santos at home, and their relegation chances rose from 45% to 63%. Santos won 3–0 at Vasco, and their relegation chances fell from 56% to 31%.

Changes since Matchday 21, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Vasco

0–3

Santos

Vasco 0–3 Santos moved the odds the most. Vasco lost 3–0 to Santos at home, and their relegation chances rose from 45% to 63%. Santos won 3–0 at Vasco, and their relegation chances fell from 56% to 31%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Flamengo
Palmeiras
Fluminense
Athletico-PR
Cruzeiro

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Athletico-PR	Cruzeiro
1	44%	18%	3%	0%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	0%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	<1%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	0%	<1%
5	61%	28%	3%	0%	<1%
6	63%	30%	2%	0%	<1%
7	51%	44%	2%	<1%	0%
8	30%	61%	6%	<1%	<1%
9	27%	68%	3%	0%	0%
10	39%	57%	2%	0%	0%
11	44%	52%	2%	0%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	0%	0%
13	50%	49%	1%	0%	0%
14	64%	36%	<1%	0%	0%
15	64%	34%	1%	0%	<1%
16	33%	66%	1%	<1%	0%
17	38%	61%	<1%	0%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	0%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	0%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	0%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	48	40%−21 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	45	60%+21 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	41	<1%±0	65%−4 pts	0%±0
4	FluminenseFluminense	38	<1%±0	74%+15 pts	0%±0
5	CruzeiroCruzeiro	36	<1%±0	47%+15 pts	<1%±0
6	BahiaBahia	34	0%±0	20%−8 pts	1%+1 pt
7	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	32	0%±0	19%−2 pts	1%±0
8	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	32	0%±0	29%+11 pts	<1%−1 pt
9	CorinthiansCorinthians	32	0%±0	11%−10 pts	1%±0
10	CoritibaCoritiba	31	0%±0	2%±0	9%−1 pt
11	BotafogoBotafogo	30	<1%±0	25%−13 pts	1%+1 pt
12	VitóriaVitória	29	0%±0	2%+1 pt	13%−13 pts
13	São PauloSão Paulo	27	0%±0	6%−3 pts	4%±0
14	SantosSantos	25	0%±0	<1%±0	31%−25 pts
15	GrêmioGrêmio	25	0%±0	1%−1 pt	22%+7 pts
16	InternacionalInternacional	24	0%±0	<1%±0	40%+6 pts
17	MirassolMirassol	23	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	35%+10 pts
18	RemoRemo	23	0%±0	<1%±0	79%−2 pts
19	VascoVasco	22	0%±0	<1%±0	63%+18 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	11	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 22, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 21 below each.

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Athletico-PR	Cruzeiro
1	44%	18%	3%	0%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	0%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	<1%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	0%	<1%
5	61%	28%	3%	0%	<1%
6	63%	30%	2%	0%	<1%
7	51%	44%	2%	<1%	0%
8	30%	61%	6%	<1%	<1%
9	27%	68%	3%	0%	0%
10	39%	57%	2%	0%	0%
11	44%	52%	2%	0%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	0%	0%
13	50%	49%	1%	0%	0%
14	64%	36%	<1%	0%	0%
15	64%	34%	1%	0%	<1%
16	33%	66%	1%	<1%	0%
17	38%	61%	<1%	0%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	0%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	0%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	0%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Athletico-PR	Cruzeiro
1	44%	18%	3%	0%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	0%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	<1%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	0%	<1%
5	61%	28%	3%	0%	<1%
6	63%	30%	2%	0%	<1%
7	51%	44%	2%	<1%	0%
8	30%	61%	6%	<1%	<1%
9	27%	68%	3%	0%	0%
10	39%	57%	2%	0%	0%
11	44%	52%	2%	0%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	0%	0%
13	50%	49%	1%	0%	0%
14	64%	36%	<1%	0%	0%
15	64%	34%	1%	0%	<1%
16	33%	66%	1%	<1%	0%
17	38%	61%	<1%	0%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	0%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	0%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	0%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Flamengo	Palmeiras	Fluminense	Athletico-PR	Cruzeiro
1	44%	18%	3%	0%	2%
2	34%	38%	4%	0%	1%
3	34%	46%	4%	<1%	1%
4	47%	34%	6%	0%	<1%
5	61%	28%	3%	0%	<1%
6	63%	30%	2%	0%	<1%
7	51%	44%	2%	<1%	0%
8	30%	61%	6%	<1%	<1%
9	27%	68%	3%	0%	0%
10	39%	57%	2%	0%	0%
11	44%	52%	2%	0%	<1%
12	52%	47%	1%	0%	0%
13	50%	49%	1%	0%	0%
14	64%	36%	<1%	0%	0%
15	64%	34%	1%	0%	<1%
16	33%	66%	1%	<1%	0%
17	38%	61%	<1%	0%	<1%
18	38%	62%	<1%	<1%	0%
19	43%	56%	<1%	<1%	0%
20	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	0%
21	39%	61%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	60%	40%	<1%	<1%	<1%