Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 20 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Palmeiras56%73%+17 pts

Down

Flamengo43%27%−16 pts

Palmeiras won 4–0 at Vitória, and their title chances rose from 56% to 73%. Flamengo drew 1–1 at Internacional, and their title chances fell from 43% to 27%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 73%.

Libertadores

Up

Cruzeiro13%22%+9 pts
Bahia36%38%+2 pts
Athletico-PR47%48%+1 pt

Down

Fluminense65%58%−7 pts
Corinthians14%10%−4 pts
Coritiba4%2%−2 pts

Cruzeiro won 1–0 at Coritiba, and their Libertadores chances rose from 13% to 22%. Fluminense drew 0–0 with Bahia at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 65% to 58%.

Relegation

Up

Vitória16%24%+8 pts
Coritiba11%17%+6 pts
Remo76%80%+4 pts

Down

Mirassol25%18%−7 pts
Internacional43%39%−4 pts
Vasco50%47%−3 pts

Vitória lost 4–0 to Palmeiras at home, and their relegation chances rose from 16% to 24%. Mirassol beat Remo 2–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 25% to 18%.

Changes since Matchday 19, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Vitória

0–4

Palmeiras

Vitória 0–4 Palmeiras moved the odds the most. Vitória lost 4–0 to Palmeiras at home, and their relegation chances rose from 16% to 24%. Palmeiras won 4–0 at Vitória, and their title chances rose from 56% to 73%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
Bahia
Athletico-PR

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Athletico-PR
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	0%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	0%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	0%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	<1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	0%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	0%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	0%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	0%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	0%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	47	73%+17 pts	100%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	39	27%−16 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	37	<1%±0	48%+1 pt	<1%±0
4	FluminenseFluminense	34	<1%±0	58%−7 pts	<1%±0
5	BahiaBahia	32	<1%±0	38%+2 pts	<1%±0
6	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	31	<1%±0	36%+1 pt	<1%±0
7	CruzeiroCruzeiro	30	0%±0	22%+9 pts	1%−2 pts
8	BotafogoBotafogo	29	<1%±0	45%±0	<1%±0
9	CorinthiansCorinthians	29	0%±0	10%−4 pts	3%+1 pt
10	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	28	0%±0	21%±0	1%±0
11	CoritibaCoritiba	27	0%±0	2%−2 pts	17%+6 pts
12	São PauloSão Paulo	26	0%±0	15%+1 pt	3%+1 pt
13	VitóriaVitória	26	0%±0	1%−1 pt	24%+8 pts
14	MirassolMirassol	23	0%±0	2%+1 pt	18%−7 pts
15	SantosSantos	22	0%±0	<1%±0	40%−2 pts
16	InternacionalInternacional	22	0%±0	<1%±0	39%−4 pts
17	GrêmioGrêmio	22	0%±0	1%±0	27%±0
18	VascoVasco	21	0%±0	<1%±0	47%−3 pts
19	RemoRemo	21	0%±0	<1%±0	80%+4 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	10	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 20, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 19 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Athletico-PR
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	0%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	0%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	0%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	<1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	0%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	0%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	0%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	0%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	0%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Athletico-PR
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	0%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	0%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	0%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	<1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	0%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	0%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	0%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	0%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	0%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Athletico-PR
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	0%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	0%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	0%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	<1%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	0%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	0%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	0%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	0%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	0%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	<1%