Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 17 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Flamengo33%38%+5 pts

Down

Palmeiras66%61%−5 pts
Fluminense1%<1%−1 pt

Flamengo beat Coritiba 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 33% to 38%. Palmeiras beat Chapecoense 1–0 at home, and their title chances fell from 66% to 61%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 61%.

Libertadores

Up

Bragantino33%47%+14 pts
Bahia30%40%+10 pts
Athletico-PR13%19%+6 pts

Down

São Paulo40%26%−14 pts
Botafogo45%35%−10 pts
Cruzeiro19%15%−4 pts

Bragantino beat Internacional 3–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 33% to 47%. São Paulo lost 1–0 at Remo, and their Libertadores chances fell from 40% to 26%.

Relegation

Up

Vasco30%41%+11 pts
Grêmio13%24%+11 pts
Mirassol28%38%+10 pts

Down

Santos45%31%−14 pts
Corinthians20%8%−12 pts
Remo91%82%−9 pts

Vasco lost 1–0 to Atlético-MG at home, and their relegation chances rose from 30% to 41%. Santos beat Vitória 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 45% to 31%.

Changes since Matchday 16, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Grêmio

1–3

Corinthians

Grêmio 1–3 Corinthians moved the odds the most. Grêmio lost 3–1 to Corinthians at home, and their relegation chances rose from 13% to 24%. Corinthians won 3–1 at Grêmio, and their relegation chances fell from 20% to 8%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Fluminense
Bahia
Bragantino

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	41	61%−5 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	34	38%+5 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	FluminenseFluminense	31	<1%−1 pt	74%−2 pts	<1%±0
4	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	30	0%±0	19%+6 pts	3%−4 pts
5	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	29	<1%±0	47%+14 pts	1%−1 pt
6	BahiaBahia	26	<1%±0	40%+10 pts	1%−1 pt
7	CoritibaCoritiba	26	0%±0	6%−3 pts	11%+2 pts
8	São PauloSão Paulo	25	<1%±0	26%−14 pts	2%+1 pt
9	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	24	0%±0	14%+6 pts	5%−7 pts
10	CorinthiansCorinthians	24	0%±0	10%+6 pts	8%−12 pts
11	CruzeiroCruzeiro	24	<1%±0	15%−4 pts	5%±0
12	BotafogoBotafogo	22	<1%±0	35%−10 pts	2%+1 pt
13	VitóriaVitória	22	0%±0	4%−2 pts	21%+6 pts
14	InternacionalInternacional	21	0%±0	2%−2 pts	26%+7 pts
15	SantosSantos	21	0%±0	2%+1 pt	31%−14 pts
16	GrêmioGrêmio	21	0%±0	3%−4 pts	24%+11 pts
17	VascoVasco	20	0%±0	1%−1 pt	41%+11 pts
18	RemoRemo	18	0%±0	<1%±0	82%−9 pts
19	MirassolMirassol	16	0%±0	1%−2 pts	38%+10 pts
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	9	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 17, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 16 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Fluminense	Bahia	Bragantino
1	18%	44%	3%	2%	<1%
2	38%	34%	4%	2%	<1%
3	46%	34%	4%	3%	<1%
4	34%	47%	6%	1%	<1%
5	28%	61%	3%	1%	0%
6	30%	63%	2%	3%	0%
7	44%	51%	2%	1%	0%
8	61%	30%	6%	2%	<1%
9	68%	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	57%	39%	2%	1%	0%
11	52%	44%	2%	1%	<1%
12	47%	52%	1%	<1%	0%
13	49%	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	36%	64%	<1%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%