Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 23 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Palmeiras40%57%+17 pts

Down

Flamengo60%43%−17 pts

Palmeiras beat Vasco 4–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 40% to 57%. Flamengo lost 2–1 at Cruzeiro, and their title chances fell from 60% to 43%. Palmeiras lead the title race at 57%.

Libertadores

Up

Cruzeiro47%60%+13 pts
Athletico-PR65%77%+12 pts
Bahia20%28%+8 pts

Down

Botafogo25%10%−15 pts
Atlético-MG29%21%−8 pts
Corinthians11%4%−7 pts

Cruzeiro beat Flamengo 2–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 47% to 60%. Botafogo lost 3–2 to Athletico-PR at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 25% to 10%.

Relegation

Up

Grêmio22%26%+4 pts
Vitória13%17%+4 pts
São Paulo4%7%+3 pts

Down

Coritiba9%2%−7 pts
Mirassol35%32%−3 pts
Internacional40%39%−1 pt

Grêmio lost 1–0 at Bragantino, and their relegation chances rose from 22% to 26%. Coritiba beat Corinthians 2–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 9% to 2%.

Changes since Matchday 22, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Cruzeiro

2–1

Flamengo

Cruzeiro 2–1 Flamengo moved the odds the most. Cruzeiro beat Flamengo 2–1 at home, and their Libertadores chances rose from 47% to 60%. Flamengo lost 2–1 at Cruzeiro, and their title chances fell from 60% to 43%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Palmeiras
Flamengo
Athletico-PR
Fluminense
Cruzeiro

Show as a table

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Cruzeiro
1	18%	44%	0%	3%	2%
2	38%	34%	0%	4%	1%
3	46%	34%	<1%	4%	1%
4	34%	47%	0%	6%	<1%
5	28%	61%	0%	3%	<1%
6	30%	63%	0%	2%	<1%
7	44%	51%	<1%	2%	0%
8	61%	30%	<1%	6%	<1%
9	68%	27%	0%	3%	0%
10	57%	39%	0%	2%	0%
11	52%	44%	0%	2%	<1%
12	47%	52%	0%	1%	0%
13	49%	50%	0%	1%	0%
14	36%	64%	0%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	0%	1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	<1%	1%	0%
17	61%	38%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	0%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	0%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	0%
21	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	40%	60%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	57%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	PalmeirasPalmeiras	51	57%+17 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	FlamengoFlamengo	45	43%−17 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
3	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	44	<1%±0	77%+12 pts	0%±0
4	FluminenseFluminense	41	<1%±0	75%+1 pt	0%±0
5	CruzeiroCruzeiro	39	<1%±0	60%+13 pts	0%±0
6	BahiaBahia	37	<1%±0	28%+8 pts	<1%−1 pt
7	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	35	<1%±0	21%+2 pts	<1%−1 pt
8	CoritibaCoritiba	34	0%±0	3%+1 pt	2%−7 pts
9	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	33	0%±0	21%−8 pts	<1%±0
10	CorinthiansCorinthians	32	0%±0	4%−7 pts	2%+1 pt
11	BotafogoBotafogo	30	0%±0	10%−15 pts	1%±0
12	VitóriaVitória	29	0%±0	<1%−2 pts	17%+4 pts
13	São PauloSão Paulo	27	0%±0	1%−5 pts	7%+3 pts
14	SantosSantos	26	0%±0	<1%±0	31%±0
15	GrêmioGrêmio	25	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	26%+4 pts
16	InternacionalInternacional	25	0%±0	<1%±0	39%−1 pt
17	MirassolMirassol	24	0%±0	<1%±0	32%−3 pts
18	RemoRemo	23	0%±0	0%±0	79%±0
19	VascoVasco	22	0%±0	0%±0	64%+1 pt
20	ChapecoenseChapecoense	14	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0

Chances after Matchday 23, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 22 below each.

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Cruzeiro
1	18%	44%	0%	3%	2%
2	38%	34%	0%	4%	1%
3	46%	34%	<1%	4%	1%
4	34%	47%	0%	6%	<1%
5	28%	61%	0%	3%	<1%
6	30%	63%	0%	2%	<1%
7	44%	51%	<1%	2%	0%
8	61%	30%	<1%	6%	<1%
9	68%	27%	0%	3%	0%
10	57%	39%	0%	2%	0%
11	52%	44%	0%	2%	<1%
12	47%	52%	0%	1%	0%
13	49%	50%	0%	1%	0%
14	36%	64%	0%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	0%	1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	<1%	1%	0%
17	61%	38%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	0%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	0%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	0%
21	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	40%	60%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	57%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Cruzeiro
1	18%	44%	0%	3%	2%
2	38%	34%	0%	4%	1%
3	46%	34%	<1%	4%	1%
4	34%	47%	0%	6%	<1%
5	28%	61%	0%	3%	<1%
6	30%	63%	0%	2%	<1%
7	44%	51%	<1%	2%	0%
8	61%	30%	<1%	6%	<1%
9	68%	27%	0%	3%	0%
10	57%	39%	0%	2%	0%
11	52%	44%	0%	2%	<1%
12	47%	52%	0%	1%	0%
13	49%	50%	0%	1%	0%
14	36%	64%	0%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	0%	1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	<1%	1%	0%
17	61%	38%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	0%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	0%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	0%
21	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	40%	60%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	57%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Libertadores

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Palmeiras	Flamengo	Athletico-PR	Fluminense	Cruzeiro
1	18%	44%	0%	3%	2%
2	38%	34%	0%	4%	1%
3	46%	34%	<1%	4%	1%
4	34%	47%	0%	6%	<1%
5	28%	61%	0%	3%	<1%
6	30%	63%	0%	2%	<1%
7	44%	51%	<1%	2%	0%
8	61%	30%	<1%	6%	<1%
9	68%	27%	0%	3%	0%
10	57%	39%	0%	2%	0%
11	52%	44%	0%	2%	<1%
12	47%	52%	0%	1%	0%
13	49%	50%	0%	1%	0%
14	36%	64%	0%	<1%	0%
15	34%	64%	0%	1%	<1%
16	66%	33%	<1%	1%	0%
17	61%	38%	0%	<1%	<1%
18	62%	38%	<1%	<1%	0%
19	56%	43%	<1%	<1%	0%
20	73%	27%	<1%	<1%	0%
21	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	40%	60%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	57%	43%	<1%	<1%	<1%