Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 1

After the games up to 29 January 2026

Flamengo lead the title race at 44%.

Biggest risers and fallers

This is the season's first report: the changes start with the next round.

Show as a table

Round	Flamengo	Botafogo	Palmeiras	Mirassol	Fluminense
1	44%	20%	18%	10%	3%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	LibertadoresLibertadores	RelegationRelegation
1	BotafogoBotafogo	3	20%	83%	<1%
2	ChapecoenseChapecoense	3	0%	<1%	55%
3	VitóriaVitória	3	<1%	2%	16%
4	BahiaBahia	3	2%	32%	1%
5	FluminenseFluminense	3	3%	41%	1%
6	MirassolMirassol	3	10%	69%	<1%
7	São PauloSão Paulo	3	1%	18%	2%
8	Athletico-PRAthletico Paranaense	3	0%	<1%	68%
9	BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino	3	<1%	7%	7%
10	Atlético-MGAtlético Mineiro	1	<1%	11%	5%
11	PalmeirasPalmeiras	1	18%	81%	<1%
12	CorinthiansCorinthians	0	<1%	3%	15%
13	FlamengoFlamengo	0	44%	94%	<1%
14	GrêmioGrêmio	0	<1%	7%	7%
15	VascoVasco	0	<1%	8%	7%
16	CoritibaCoritiba	0	0%	<1%	77%
17	InternacionalInternacional	0	<1%	1%	30%
18	SantosSantos	0	<1%	2%	18%
19	RemoRemo	0	0%	<1%	89%
20	CruzeiroCruzeiro	0	2%	40%	1%

Chances after Matchday 1, from 10,000 simulated seasons.