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Brasileirão Série A 2026

Brasileirão Série A title odds after Matchday 5

After the games up to 16 March 2026

Flamengo lead the title race at 61%. Botafogo 0–3 Flamengo moved the odds the most.

Simulate the rest of the season

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

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Flamengo won 3–0 at Botafogo, and their title chances rose from 47% to 61%. Palmeiras beat Mirassol 1–0 at home, and their title chances fell from 34% to 28%. Flamengo lead the title race at 61%.

Libertadores

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São Paulo won 2–1 at Bragantino, and their Libertadores chances rose from 58% to 72%. Botafogo lost 3–0 to Flamengo at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 61% to 40%.

Relegation

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Internacional lost 1–0 to Bahia at home, and their relegation chances rose from 48% to 59%. Vitória beat Atlético-MG 2–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 31% to 16%.

Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Botafogo0–3Flamengo

Botafogo 0–3 Flamengo moved the odds the most. Botafogo lost 3–0 to Flamengo at home, and their Libertadores chances fell from 61% to 40%. Flamengo won 3–0 at Botafogo, and their title chances rose from 47% to 61%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

  • Flamengo
  • Palmeiras
  • São Paulo
  • Fluminense
  • Bahia
0%20%40%60%80%12345Flamengo 61%Palmeiras 28%São Paulo 4%Fluminense 3%Bahia 1%
Show as a table
RoundFlamengoPalmeirasSão PauloFluminenseBahia
144%18%1%3%2%
234%38%1%4%2%
334%46%1%4%3%
447%34%4%6%1%
561%28%4%3%1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#ClubTitleLibertadoresRelegation
1São Paulo4%±072%+14 pts<1%±0
2Palmeiras28%−6 pts96%+2 pts0%±0
3Fluminense3%−3 pts67%+1 pt<1%±0
4Bahia1%±050%+14 pts<1%−1 pt
5Flamengo61%+14 pts99%+3 pts0%±0
6Coritiba0%±01%±026%−9 pts
7Grêmio<1%±010%−4 pts5%+1 pt
8Corinthians<1%±05%±08%−2 pts
9Bragantino0%±02%−2 pts16%+4 pts
10Athletico-PR0%±0<1%±059%±0
11Vitória0%±03%+2 pts16%−15 pts
12Chapecoense0%±0<1%±058%−1 pt
13Mirassol1%−1 pt39%−3 pts<1%±0
14Santos<1%±02%−1 pt18%+1 pt
15Vasco0%±04%+1 pt12%−3 pts
16Atlético-MG0%±02%−2 pts23%+10 pts
17Botafogo1%−4 pts40%−21 pts1%+1 pt
18Remo0%±00%±093%+4 pts
19Cruzeiro<1%±08%−4 pts6%+1 pt
20Internacional0%±0<1%±059%+11 pts

Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.

All reports this season