Brasileirão Série B title odds after Matchday 16 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Novorizontino21%29%+8 pts
Criciúma18%22%+4 pts
Operário-PR2%4%+2 pts

Down

Juventude20%12%−8 pts
Sport10%4%−6 pts
São Bernardo2%1%−1 pt

Novorizontino beat Atlético-GO 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 21% to 29%. Juventude drew 0–0 at Náutico, and their title chances fell from 20% to 12%. Novorizontino lead the title race at 29%.

Promotion

Up

Novorizontino38%49%+11 pts
Criciúma34%41%+7 pts
Fortaleza30%34%+4 pts

Down

Juventude38%27%−11 pts
Sport22%11%−11 pts
São Bernardo7%3%−4 pts

Novorizontino beat Atlético-GO 3–0 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 38% to 49%. Juventude drew 0–0 at Náutico, and their promotion chances fell from 38% to 27%.

Relegation

Up

Avaí42%58%+16 pts
CRB7%18%+11 pts
Athletic-MG8%14%+6 pts

Down

Londrina53%28%−25 pts
Botafogo-SP47%32%−15 pts
Goiás11%4%−7 pts

Avaí lost 3–1 at Botafogo-SP, and their relegation chances rose from 42% to 58%. Londrina beat CRB 5–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 53% to 28%.

Changes since Matchday 15, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Londrina

5–0

CRB

Londrina 5–0 CRB moved the odds the most. Londrina beat CRB 5–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 53% to 28%. CRB lost 5–0 at Londrina, and their relegation chances rose from 7% to 18%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Novorizontino
Criciúma
Fortaleza
Juventude
Vila Nova

Show as a table

Round	Novorizontino	Criciúma	Fortaleza	Juventude	Vila Nova
1	1%	16%	11%	9%	<1%
2	2%	12%	9%	7%	1%
3	1%	6%	10%	3%	1%
4	3%	7%	13%	7%	2%
5	6%	4%	24%	11%	4%
6	3%	9%	23%	15%	6%
7	3%	7%	40%	11%	4%
8	4%	7%	38%	9%	2%
9	5%	8%	30%	10%	5%
10	6%	5%	38%	4%	6%
11	5%	9%	24%	7%	9%
12	12%	10%	29%	3%	11%
13	13%	10%	14%	8%	9%
14	17%	14%	11%	14%	13%
15	21%	18%	16%	20%	8%
16	29%	22%	17%	12%	9%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	PromotionPromotion	RelegationRelegation
1	Vila NovaVila Nova	31	9%+1 pt	21%+4 pts	<1%±0
2	NovorizontinoNovorizontino	30	29%+8 pts	49%+11 pts	0%±0
3	CriciúmaCriciúma	30	22%+4 pts	41%+7 pts	<1%±0
4	FortalezaFortaleza	28	17%+1 pt	34%+4 pts	<1%±0
5	Operário-PROperário-PR	28	4%+2 pts	10%+3 pts	<1%−1 pt
6	JuventudeJuventude	26	12%−8 pts	27%−11 pts	<1%±0
7	São BernardoSão Bernardo	25	1%−1 pt	3%−4 pts	2%+1 pt
8	SportSport	25	4%−6 pts	11%−11 pts	<1%±0
9	GoiásGoiás	24	<1%±0	1%±0	4%−7 pts
10	CuiabáCuiabá	23	<1%±0	1%±0	5%−3 pts
11	Athletic-MGAthletic-MG	22	<1%±0	<1%−1 pt	14%+6 pts
12	NáuticoNáutico	21	<1%±0	<1%−1 pt	13%+1 pt
13	Atlético-GOAtlético Goianiense	21	<1%±0	<1%−1 pt	12%+6 pts
14	Botafogo-SPBotafogo-SP	19	<1%±0	<1%±0	32%−15 pts
15	CRBCRB	19	<1%±0	<1%−1 pt	18%+11 pts
16	LondrinaLondrina	18	<1%±0	<1%±0	28%−25 pts
17	CearáCeará	17	<1%−1 pt	<1%−2 pts	13%+6 pts
18	AvaíAvaí	13	0%±0	0%±0	58%+16 pts
19	Ponte PretaPonte Preta	8	0%±0	0%±0	>99%±0
20	América-MGAmérica Mineiro	6	0%±0	0%±0	99%+1 pt

Chances after Matchday 16, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 15 below each.

Round	Novorizontino	Criciúma	Fortaleza	Juventude	Vila Nova
1	1%	16%	11%	9%	<1%
2	2%	12%	9%	7%	1%
3	1%	6%	10%	3%	1%
4	3%	7%	13%	7%	2%
5	6%	4%	24%	11%	4%
6	3%	9%	23%	15%	6%
7	3%	7%	40%	11%	4%
8	4%	7%	38%	9%	2%
9	5%	8%	30%	10%	5%
10	6%	5%	38%	4%	6%
11	5%	9%	24%	7%	9%
12	12%	10%	29%	3%	11%
13	13%	10%	14%	8%	9%
14	17%	14%	11%	14%	13%
15	21%	18%	16%	20%	8%
16	29%	22%	17%	12%	9%

Round	Novorizontino	Criciúma	Fortaleza	Juventude	Vila Nova
1	1%	16%	11%	9%	<1%
2	2%	12%	9%	7%	1%
3	1%	6%	10%	3%	1%
4	3%	7%	13%	7%	2%
5	6%	4%	24%	11%	4%
6	3%	9%	23%	15%	6%
7	3%	7%	40%	11%	4%
8	4%	7%	38%	9%	2%
9	5%	8%	30%	10%	5%
10	6%	5%	38%	4%	6%
11	5%	9%	24%	7%	9%
12	12%	10%	29%	3%	11%
13	13%	10%	14%	8%	9%
14	17%	14%	11%	14%	13%
15	21%	18%	16%	20%	8%
16	29%	22%	17%	12%	9%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Promotion

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Novorizontino	Criciúma	Fortaleza	Juventude	Vila Nova
1	1%	16%	11%	9%	<1%
2	2%	12%	9%	7%	1%
3	1%	6%	10%	3%	1%
4	3%	7%	13%	7%	2%
5	6%	4%	24%	11%	4%
6	3%	9%	23%	15%	6%
7	3%	7%	40%	11%	4%
8	4%	7%	38%	9%	2%
9	5%	8%	30%	10%	5%
10	6%	5%	38%	4%	6%
11	5%	9%	24%	7%	9%
12	12%	10%	29%	3%	11%
13	13%	10%	14%	8%	9%
14	17%	14%	11%	14%	13%
15	21%	18%	16%	20%	8%
16	29%	22%	17%	12%	9%