Brasileirão Série B title odds after Matchday 12 (2026)

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Novorizontino5%12%+7 pts
Fortaleza24%29%+5 pts
São Bernardo4%7%+3 pts

Down

Sport34%23%−11 pts
Juventude7%3%−4 pts
Goiás2%<1%−2 pts

Novorizontino won 4–0 at Goiás, and their title chances rose from 5% to 12%. Sport drew 1–1 with Athletic-MG at home, and their title chances fell from 34% to 23%. Fortaleza lead the title race at 29%.

Promotion

Up

Novorizontino12%25%+13 pts
Fortaleza42%48%+6 pts
São Bernardo10%15%+5 pts

Down

Sport53%41%−12 pts
Juventude18%8%−10 pts
Goiás5%1%−4 pts

Novorizontino won 4–0 at Goiás, and their promotion chances rose from 12% to 25%. Sport drew 1–1 with Athletic-MG at home, and their promotion chances fell from 53% to 41%.

Relegation

Up

Botafogo-SP55%62%+7 pts
Londrina75%79%+4 pts
Goiás3%7%+4 pts

Down

Atlético-GO15%7%−8 pts
Operário-PR8%3%−5 pts
Cuiabá9%5%−4 pts

Botafogo-SP lost 1–0 at Vila Nova, and their relegation chances rose from 55% to 62%. Atlético-GO won 2–1 at América-MG, and their relegation chances fell from 15% to 7%.

Changes since Matchday 11, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Goiás

0–4

Novorizontino

Goiás 0–4 Novorizontino moved the odds the most. Goiás lost 4–0 to Novorizontino at home, and their promotion chances fell from 5% to 1%. Novorizontino won 4–0 at Goiás, and their promotion chances rose from 12% to 25%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Fortaleza
Sport
Novorizontino
Vila Nova
Criciúma

Show as a table

Round	Fortaleza	Sport	Novorizontino	Vila Nova	Criciúma
1	11%	7%	1%	<1%	16%
2	9%	6%	2%	1%	12%
3	10%	8%	1%	1%	6%
4	13%	6%	3%	2%	7%
5	24%	5%	6%	4%	4%
6	23%	9%	3%	6%	9%
7	40%	15%	3%	4%	7%
8	38%	25%	4%	2%	7%
9	30%	17%	5%	5%	8%
10	38%	23%	6%	6%	5%
11	24%	34%	5%	9%	9%
12	29%	23%	12%	11%	10%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	PromotionPromotion	RelegationRelegation
1	Vila NovaVila Nova	25	11%+2 pts	22%+2 pts	<1%±0
2	São BernardoSão Bernardo	24	7%+3 pts	15%+5 pts	<1%−1 pt
3	SportSport	23	23%−11 pts	41%−12 pts	<1%±0
4	FortalezaFortaleza	21	29%+5 pts	48%+6 pts	<1%±0
5	NovorizontinoNovorizontino	20	12%+7 pts	25%+13 pts	<1%−1 pt
6	CriciúmaCriciúma	20	10%+1 pt	21%+1 pt	<1%±0
7	NáuticoNáutico	19	1%±0	2%−2 pts	4%±0
8	Operário-PROperário-PR	19	1%+1 pt	3%+1 pt	3%−5 pts
9	Athletic-MGAthletic-MG	18	1%±0	2%±0	4%−2 pts
10	GoiásGoiás	17	<1%−2 pts	1%−4 pts	7%+4 pts
11	JuventudeJuventude	16	3%−4 pts	8%−10 pts	1%+1 pt
12	CearáCeará	16	4%+2 pts	8%+2 pts	1%−1 pt
13	Atlético-GOAtlético Goianiense	16	<1%±0	1%±0	7%−8 pts
14	CuiabáCuiabá	16	1%+1 pt	2%+1 pt	5%−4 pts
15	CRBCRB	14	<1%−1 pt	1%−2 pts	8%+2 pts
16	Botafogo-SPBotafogo-SP	10	0%±0	<1%±0	62%+7 pts
17	AvaíAvaí	10	<1%±0	<1%±0	24%+2 pts
18	LondrinaLondrina	8	0%±0	0%±0	79%+4 pts
19	Ponte PretaPonte Preta	8	0%±0	0%±0	96%+2 pts
20	América-MGAmérica Mineiro	3	0%±0	0%±0	99%+1 pt

Chances after Matchday 12, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 11 below each.

Round	Fortaleza	Sport	Novorizontino	Vila Nova	Criciúma
1	11%	7%	1%	<1%	16%
2	9%	6%	2%	1%	12%
3	10%	8%	1%	1%	6%
4	13%	6%	3%	2%	7%
5	24%	5%	6%	4%	4%
6	23%	9%	3%	6%	9%
7	40%	15%	3%	4%	7%
8	38%	25%	4%	2%	7%
9	30%	17%	5%	5%	8%
10	38%	23%	6%	6%	5%
11	24%	34%	5%	9%	9%
12	29%	23%	12%	11%	10%

Round	Fortaleza	Sport	Novorizontino	Vila Nova	Criciúma
1	11%	7%	1%	<1%	16%
2	9%	6%	2%	1%	12%
3	10%	8%	1%	1%	6%
4	13%	6%	3%	2%	7%
5	24%	5%	6%	4%	4%
6	23%	9%	3%	6%	9%
7	40%	15%	3%	4%	7%
8	38%	25%	4%	2%	7%
9	30%	17%	5%	5%	8%
10	38%	23%	6%	6%	5%
11	24%	34%	5%	9%	9%
12	29%	23%	12%	11%	10%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Promotion

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Fortaleza	Sport	Novorizontino	Vila Nova	Criciúma
1	11%	7%	1%	<1%	16%
2	9%	6%	2%	1%	12%
3	10%	8%	1%	1%	6%
4	13%	6%	3%	2%	7%
5	24%	5%	6%	4%	4%
6	23%	9%	3%	6%	9%
7	40%	15%	3%	4%	7%
8	38%	25%	4%	2%	7%
9	30%	17%	5%	5%	8%
10	38%	23%	6%	6%	5%
11	24%	34%	5%	9%	9%
12	29%	23%	12%	11%	10%