Championship title odds after Matchday 9
After the games up to 11 October 2026
West Ham lead the title race at 38%. Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Middlesbrough8%15%+7 pts
Southampton21%24%+3 pts
Swansea5%8%+3 pts
Middlesbrough beat Wolves 1–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 8% to 15%. West Ham drew 1–1 with QPR at home, and their title chances fell from 50% to 38%. West Ham lead the title race at 38%.
Promotion
Up
- Middlesbrough22%32%+10 pts
- Swansea14%19%+5 pts
Birmingham2%4%+2 pts
Middlesbrough beat Wolves 1–0 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 22% to 32%. West Ham drew 1–1 with QPR at home, and their promotion chances fell from 73% to 61%.
Relegation
Up
Watford12%25%+13 pts
Lincoln City23%32%+9 pts
Preston59%62%+3 pts
Down
Portsmouth22%17%−5 pts
Blackburn9%5%−4 pts
Sheffield Utd5%1%−4 pts
Watford lost 4–0 to Burnley at home, and their relegation chances rose from 12% to 25%. Portsmouth lost 1–0 at Southampton, and their relegation chances fell from 22% to 17%.
Changes since Matchday 8, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves moved the odds the most. Middlesbrough beat Wolves 1–0 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 22% to 32%. Wolves lost 1–0 at Middlesbrough, and their promotion chances fell from 34% to 26%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- West Ham
- Southampton
- Middlesbrough
- Wolves
- Swansea
Show as a table
| Round | West Ham | Southampton | Middlesbrough | Wolves | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 7% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 2 | 21% | 15% | 7% | 14% | 1% |
| 3 | 15% | 33% | 10% | 21% | 4% |
| 4 | 25% | 32% | 11% | 12% | 9% |
| 5 | 34% | 22% | 15% | 12% | 6% |
| 6 | 33% | 30% | 14% | 10% | 2% |
| 7 | 47% | 28% | 10% | 10% | 2% |
| 8 | 50% | 21% | 8% | 14% | 5% |
| 9 | 38% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 8% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SwanseaSwansea City | 20 | 8%+3 pts | 19%+5 pts | <1%±0 |
| 2 | MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough | 18 | 15%+7 pts | 32%+10 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | SouthamptonSouthampton | 17 | 24%+3 pts | 47%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  West HamWest Ham United | 16 | 38%−12 pts | 61%−12 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  StokeStoke City | 16 | 1%+1 pt | 2%+1 pt | <1%−1 pt |
| 6 |  WolvesWolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 11%−3 pts | 26%−8 pts | 0%±0 |
| 7 |  QPRQueens Park Rangers | 14 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 1%−1 pt |
| 8 | BirminghamBirmingham City | 14 | 1%+1 pt | 4%+2 pts | <1%±0 |
| 9 |  MillwallMillwall | 14 | 2%+1 pt | 5%+1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 10 |  West BromWest Bromwich Albion | 14 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 11 |  Bristol CityBristol City | 14 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 12 |  CharltonCharlton Athletic | 13 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 9%−3 pts |
| 13 | BlackburnBlackburn Rovers | 12 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 5%−4 pts |
| 14 | Sheffield UtdSheffield United | 12 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%−4 pts |
| 15 |  WrexhamWrexham | 11 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−1 pt |
| 16 | Lincoln CityLincoln City | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 32%+9 pts |
| 17 |  BoltonBolton Wanderers | 10 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 62%+2 pts |
| 18 |  Norwich CityNorwich City | 9 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 2%±0 |
| 19 | PortsmouthPortsmouth | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 17%−5 pts |
| 20 | WatfordWatford | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 25%+13 pts |
| 21 |  CardiffCardiff City | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 64%−3 pts |
| 22 |  BurnleyBurnley | 7 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 1%−4 pts |
| 23 |  DerbyDerby County | 6 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 16%−3 pts |
| 24 | PrestonPreston North End | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 62%+3 pts |
Chances after Matchday 9, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 8 below each.