Championship title odds after Matchday 12
After the games up to 24 October 2026
West Ham lead the title race at 46%. West Ham 2–3 Southampton moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Southampton14%27%+13 pts
Middlesbrough7%20%+13 pts
QPR<1%1%+1 pt
Down
West Ham68%46%−22 pts
Swansea4%1%−3 pts
Birmingham3%2%−1 pt
Southampton won 3–2 at West Ham, and their title chances rose from 14% to 27%. West Ham lost 3–2 to Southampton at home, and their title chances fell from 68% to 46%. West Ham lead the title race at 46%.
Promotion
Up
- Middlesbrough26%44%+18 pts
- Southampton41%56%+15 pts
- QPR1%3%+2 pts
Down
- West Ham86%73%−13 pts
- Swansea16%4%−12 pts
- Birmingham12%7%−5 pts
Middlesbrough won 5–1 at Bolton, and their promotion chances rose from 26% to 44%. West Ham lost 3–2 to Southampton at home, and their promotion chances fell from 86% to 73%.
Relegation
Down
Lincoln City53%28%−25 pts
Cardiff30%18%−12 pts
Portsmouth5%2%−3 pts
Bolton lost 5–1 to Middlesbrough at home, and their relegation chances rose from 27% to 42%. Lincoln City beat Burnley 4–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 53% to 28%.
Changes since Matchday 11, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
West Ham 2–3 Southampton moved the odds the most. West Ham lost 3–2 to Southampton at home, and their title chances fell from 68% to 46%. Southampton won 3–2 at West Ham, and their promotion chances rose from 41% to 56%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- West Ham
- Southampton
- Middlesbrough
- Wolves
- Birmingham
Show as a table
| Round | West Ham | Southampton | Middlesbrough | Wolves | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 7% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 2 | 21% | 15% | 7% | 14% | 1% |
| 3 | 15% | 33% | 10% | 21% | 1% |
| 4 | 25% | 32% | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| 5 | 34% | 22% | 15% | 12% | 1% |
| 6 | 33% | 30% | 14% | 10% | <1% |
| 7 | 47% | 28% | 10% | 10% | <1% |
| 8 | 50% | 21% | 8% | 14% | <1% |
| 9 | 38% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 1% |
| 10 | 53% | 22% | 13% | 2% | 2% |
| 11 | 68% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| 12 | 46% | 27% | 20% | 3% | 2% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough | 25 | 20%+13 pts | 44%+18 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | SouthamptonSouthampton | 24 | 27%+13 pts | 56%+15 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | SwanseaSwansea City | 23 | 1%−3 pts | 4%−12 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 | West HamWest Ham United | 22 | 46%−22 pts | 73%−13 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  WolvesWolverhampton Wanderers | 21 | 3%±0 | 10%−3 pts | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  West BromWest Bromwich Albion | 21 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 7 | BirminghamBirmingham City | 20 | 2%−1 pt | 7%−5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 8 | QPRQueens Park Rangers | 20 | 1%+1 pt | 3%+2 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 9 |  StokeStoke City | 20 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 10 |  BlackburnBlackburn Rovers | 18 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%−2 pts |
| 11 | PortsmouthPortsmouth | 18 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 2%−3 pts |
| 12 |  Sheffield UtdSheffield United | 16 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 13 |  MillwallMillwall | 15 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 1%+1 pt |
| 14 |  Bristol CityBristol City | 15 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%±0 |
| 15 | Lincoln CityLincoln City | 15 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 28%−25 pts |
| 16 | CardiffCardiff City | 14 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 18%−12 pts |
| 17 |  WrexhamWrexham | 14 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 2%+1 pt |
| 18 |  BoltonBolton Wanderers | 14 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 42%+15 pts |
| 19 |  CharltonCharlton Athletic | 14 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 25%+11 pts |
| 20 |  Norwich CityNorwich City | 12 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 3%−2 pts |
| 21 |  WatfordWatford | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 39%+9 pts |
| 22 |  BurnleyBurnley | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 8%+6 pts |
| 23 |  DerbyDerby County | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 37%+2 pts |
| 24 |  PrestonPreston North End | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 89%+1 pt |
Chances after Matchday 12, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 11 below each.