Championship title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 2 September 2026
Southampton lead the title race at 32%. West Ham 4–2 Wolves moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Down
Wolves21%12%−9 pts
Millwall8%2%−6 pts
Southampton33%32%−1 pt
West Ham beat Wolves 4–2 at home, and their title chances rose from 15% to 25%. Wolves lost 4–2 at West Ham, and their title chances fell from 21% to 12%. Southampton lead the title race at 32%.
Promotion
Down
- Millwall19%5%−14 pts
- Wolves38%26%−12 pts
- Southampton54%51%−3 pts
West Ham beat Wolves 4–2 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 31% to 46%. Millwall lost 3–0 to Wrexham at home, and their promotion chances fell from 19% to 5%.
Relegation
Up
Preston31%44%+13 pts
Portsmouth18%29%+11 pts
Watford3%5%+2 pts
Preston lost 3–1 to Bristol City at home, and their relegation chances rose from 31% to 44%. Stoke beat Norwich City 1–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 22% to 12%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
West Ham 4–2 Wolves moved the odds the most. West Ham beat Wolves 4–2 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 31% to 46%. Wolves lost 4–2 at West Ham, and their promotion chances fell from 38% to 26%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Southampton
- West Ham
- Wolves
- Middlesbrough
- Swansea
Show as a table
| Round | Southampton | West Ham | Wolves | Middlesbrough | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7% | 42% | 4% | 12% | 1% |
| 2 | 15% | 21% | 14% | 7% | 1% |
| 3 | 33% | 15% | 21% | 10% | 4% |
| 4 | 32% | 25% | 12% | 11% | 9% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SwanseaSwansea City | 10 | 9%+5 pts | 19%+9 pts | <1%±0 |
| 2 |  QPRQueens Park Rangers | 10 | 1%±0 | 3%±0 | 1%−1 pt |
| 3 |  CharltonCharlton Athletic | 10 | 1%±0 | 3%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 4 | SouthamptonSouthampton | 7 | 32%−1 pt | 51%−3 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 | WolvesWolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 12%−9 pts | 26%−12 pts | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough | 7 | 11%+1 pt | 24%+1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 7 |  Bristol CityBristol City | 7 | 1%+1 pt | 3%+2 pts | 1%−3 pts |
| 8 |  West BromWest Bromwich Albion | 7 | <1%−1 pt | 2%±0 | 2%±0 |
| 9 |  BirminghamBirmingham City | 6 | 1%±0 | 4%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 10 |  Sheffield UtdSheffield United | 6 | 1%+1 pt | 2%±0 | 2%−1 pt |
| 11 | MillwallMillwall | 6 | 2%−6 pts | 5%−14 pts | <1%±0 |
| 12 |  WrexhamWrexham | 5 | 2%+2 pts | 4%+3 pts | 1%−4 pts |
| 13 |  West HamWest Ham United | 5 | 25%+10 pts | 46%+15 pts | 0%±0 |
| 14 |  BlackburnBlackburn Rovers | 5 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 9%+1 pt |
| 15 | WatfordWatford | 5 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 5%+2 pts |
| 16 |  BoltonBolton Wanderers | 4 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 74%+1 pt |
| 17 |  DerbyDerby County | 4 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 3%−8 pts |
| 18 |  Lincoln CityLincoln City | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 56%−2 pts |
| 19 |  CardiffCardiff City | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 55%−1 pt |
| 20 |  Norwich CityNorwich City | 3 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−2 pts | 3%+1 pt |
| 21 | PortsmouthPortsmouth | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 29%+11 pts |
| 22 |  StokeStoke City | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 12%−10 pts |
| 23 |  BurnleyBurnley | 2 | 1%−1 pt | 4%−1 pt | 1%±0 |
| 24 | PrestonPreston North End | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 44%+13 pts |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.