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Championship 2026/27

Championship title odds after Matchday 5

After the games up to 6 September 2026

West Ham lead the title race at 34%. Lincoln City 1–1 Southampton moved the odds the most.

Simulate the rest of the season

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Up

Down

West Ham beat Derby 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 25% to 34%. Southampton drew 1–1 at Lincoln City, and their title chances fell from 32% to 22%. West Ham lead the title race at 34%.

Promotion

Up

Down

West Ham beat Derby 3–0 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 46% to 54%. Southampton drew 1–1 at Lincoln City, and their promotion chances fell from 51% to 40%.

Relegation

Up

Down

Cardiff lost 2–0 at Portsmouth, and their relegation chances rose from 55% to 69%. Portsmouth beat Cardiff 2–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 29% to 17%.

Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Lincoln City1–1Southampton

Lincoln City 1–1 Southampton moved the odds the most. Lincoln City drew 1–1 with Southampton at home, and their relegation chances fell from 56% to 50%. Southampton drew 1–1 at Lincoln City, and their promotion chances fell from 51% to 40%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

  • West Ham
  • Southampton
  • Middlesbrough
  • Wolves
  • Swansea
0%15%30%45%60%12345West Ham 34%Southampton 22%Middlesbrou… 15%Wolves 12%Swansea 6%
Show as a table
RoundWest HamSouthamptonMiddlesbroughWolvesSwansea
142%7%12%4%1%
221%15%7%14%1%
315%33%10%21%4%
425%32%11%12%9%
534%22%15%12%6%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#ClubTitlePromotionRelegation
1Swansea6%−3 pts14%−5 pts<1%±0
2Middlesbrough15%+4 pts32%+8 pts<1%±0
3QPR<1%−1 pt1%−2 pts2%+1 pt
4Bristol City2%+1 pt7%+4 pts<1%−1 pt
5West Brom1%+1 pt2%±01%−1 pt
6Charlton<1%−1 pt<1%−3 pts4%+3 pts
7Millwall4%+2 pts11%+6 pts<1%±0
8Southampton22%−10 pts40%−11 pts0%±0
9West Ham34%+9 pts54%+8 pts0%±0
10Wolves12%±025%−1 pt<1%±0
11Birmingham1%±03%−1 pt1%±0
12Wrexham1%−1 pt4%±01%±0
13Norwich City1%+1 pt3%+2 pts1%−2 pts
14Stoke<1%±01%+1 pt3%−9 pts
15Portsmouth<1%±0<1%±017%−12 pts
16Sheffield Utd<1%−1 pt<1%−2 pts4%+2 pts
17Blackburn<1%±0<1%±011%+2 pts
18Lincoln City0%±00%±050%−6 pts
19Watford<1%±0<1%±07%+2 pts
20Derby<1%±0<1%−1 pt7%+4 pts
21Bolton0%±00%±086%+12 pts
22Cardiff0%±00%±069%+14 pts
23Preston0%±0<1%±034%−10 pts
24Burnley<1%−1 pt2%−2 pts1%±0

Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.

All reports this season