Primera División odds after Matchday 18
After the games up to 5 November 2026Latest
Olimpia lead the Libertadores race at 100%.
Biggest risers and fallers
The model changed since the last report
The simulation now allows for each club's rating being an estimate, more so early in the season, so the chances are a little less sure. Changes since Matchday 17 would mix that with the results, so this report shows none; they're back next round.
The Libertadores race
- Olimpia
- Nacional
- Cerro Porteño
- Trinidense
- Libertad
Show as a table
| Round | Olimpia | Nacional | Cerro Porteño | Trinidense | Libertad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | 61% | 58% | 28% | 38% |
| 2 | 100% | 70% | 37% | 39% | 44% |
| 3 | 100% | 59% | 47% | 49% | 34% |
| 4 | 100% | 58% | 38% | 41% | 48% |
| 5 | 100% | 58% | 42% | 34% | 58% |
| 6 | 100% | 68% | 33% | 29% | 61% |
| 7 | 100% | 82% | 29% | 15% | 64% |
| 8 | 100% | 88% | 40% | 26% | 43% |
| 9 | 100% | 82% | 50% | 13% | 49% |
| 10 | 100% | 85% | 39% | 17% | 55% |
| 11 | 100% | 92% | 48% | 8% | 47% |
| 12 | 100% | 93% | 43% | 18% | 39% |
| 13 | 100% | 94% | 20% | 24% | 59% |
| 14 | 100% | 97% | 35% | 15% | 52% |
| 15 | 100% | 99% | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| 16 | 100% | 97% | 27% | 41% | 34% |
| 17 | 100% | 100% | 31% | 35% | 32% |
| 18Model update | 100% | 100% | 63% | 23% | 11% |
The top five clubs' Libertadores chances after each round. The line before Matchday 18 marks a model update: the step there is the model's, not the results'.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | LibertadoresLibertadores |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  OlimpiaClub Olimpia | 88 | 100% |
| 2 |  NacionalNacional Asunción | 71 | >99% |
| 3 |  Cerro PorteñoCerro Porteño | 65 | 63% |
| 4 |  TrinidenseSportivo Trinidense | 63 | 23% |
| 5 |  LibertadLibertad | 61 | 11% |
| 6 |  GuaraníGuaraní | 60 | 3% |
| 7 |  AmelianoSportivo Ameliano | 52 | 0% |
| 8 |  2 de Mayo2 de Mayo | 52 | 0% |
| 9 |  Dep. RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta | 43 | 0% |
| 10 |  LuqueñoSportivo Luqueño | 39 | 0% |
| 11 |  Rubio ÑúRubio Ñú | 39 | 0% |
| 12 |  San LorenzoSportivo San Lorenzo | 25 | 0% |
Chances after Matchday 18, from 10,000 simulated seasons.