MLS play-off odds after Matchday 26
After the games up to 1 October 2026
Vancouver lead the play-off race at 100%. NY Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Play-offs
Down
NY Red Bulls22%11%−11 pts
Colorado28%26%−2 pts
LA Galaxy12%10%−2 pts
Seattle beat Sporting KC 2–1 at home, and their play-off chances rose from 43% to 49%. NY Red Bulls lost 3–0 to St. Louis at home, and their play-off chances fell from 22% to 11%. Vancouver lead the play-off race at 100%.
Changes since Matchday 25, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
NY Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis moved the odds the most. NY Red Bulls lost 3–0 to St. Louis at home, and their play-off chances fell from 22% to 11%. St. Louis won 3–0 at NY Red Bulls, and their play-off chances rose from 99% to >99%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The play-off race
- Vancouver
- Nashville
- Inter Miami
- New England
- Dallas
Show as a table
| Round | Vancouver | Nashville | Inter Miami | New England | Dallas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97% | 79% | 88% | 19% | 47% |
| 2 | 98% | 83% | 90% | 16% | 39% |
| 3 | 99% | 93% | 99% | 18% | 39% |
| 4 | 100% | 98% | 99% | 58% | 42% |
| 5 | 100% | 99% | 100% | 45% | 41% |
| 6 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 52% | 60% |
| 7 | 100% | 100% | 98% | 56% | 45% |
| 8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 69% | 32% |
| 9 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 87% | 25% |
| 10 | 100% | 100% | 99% | 92% | 41% |
| 11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 53% |
| 12 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 61% |
| 13 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 79% |
| 14 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 78% |
| 15 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 78% |
| 16 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 76% |
| 17 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 73% |
| 18 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 84% | 71% |
| 19 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | 69% |
| 20 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 87% |
| 21 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 88% |
| 22 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 91% |
| 23 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% |
| 24 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% |
| 25 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 26 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The top five clubs' play-off chances after each round.
Every club's chances
Chances after Matchday 26, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 25 below each.
All reports this season
- Matchday 301 Nov
- Matchday 2924 Oct
- Matchday 2818 Oct
- Matchday 2711 Oct
- Matchday 261 Oct
- Matchday 2527 Sept
- Matchday 2420 Sept
- Matchday 2313 Sept
- Matchday 225 Sept
- Matchday 2130 Aug
- Matchday 2023 Aug
- Matchday 1916 Aug
- Matchday 188 Aug
- Matchday 171 Aug
- Matchday 1625 Jul
- Matchday 1517 Jul
- Matchday 1424 May
- Matchday 1324 May
- Matchday 1217 May
- Matchday 1110 May
- Matchday 103 May
- Matchday 926 Apr
- Matchday 819 Apr
- Matchday 712 Apr
- Matchday 64 Apr
- Matchday 522 Mar
- Matchday 415 Mar
- Matchday 38 Mar
- Matchday 21 Mar
- Matchday 121 Feb