MLS play-off odds after Matchday 15
After the games up to 17 July 2026
Nashville lead the play-off race at 100%. Seattle 1–5 Portland moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Play-offs
Down
Seattle94%81%−13 pts
LA Galaxy12%6%−6 pts
Real Salt Lake75%73%−2 pts
Portland won 5–1 at Seattle, and their play-off chances rose from 8% to 23%. Seattle lost 5–1 to Portland at home, and their play-off chances fell from 94% to 81%. Nashville lead the play-off race at 100%.
Changes since Matchday 14, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Seattle 1–5 Portland moved the odds the most. Seattle lost 5–1 to Portland at home, and their play-off chances fell from 94% to 81%. Portland won 5–1 at Seattle, and their play-off chances rose from 8% to 23%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The play-off race
- Nashville
- Vancouver
- Inter Miami
- San Jose
- Chicago
Show as a table
| Round | Nashville | Vancouver | Inter Miami | San Jose | Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79% | 97% | 88% | 58% | 57% |
| 2 | 83% | 98% | 90% | 67% | 71% |
| 3 | 93% | 99% | 99% | 82% | 80% |
| 4 | 98% | 100% | 99% | 76% | 63% |
| 5 | 99% | 100% | 100% | 86% | 82% |
| 6 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 91% | 86% |
| 7 | 100% | 100% | 98% | 95% | 89% |
| 8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 91% |
| 9 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% |
| 10 | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 93% |
| 11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 81% |
| 12 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 96% |
| 13 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
| 14 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
| 15 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
The top five clubs' play-off chances after each round.
Every club's chances
Chances after Matchday 15, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 14 below each.
All reports this season
- Matchday 301 Nov
- Matchday 2924 Oct
- Matchday 2818 Oct
- Matchday 2711 Oct
- Matchday 261 Oct
- Matchday 2527 Sept
- Matchday 2420 Sept
- Matchday 2313 Sept
- Matchday 225 Sept
- Matchday 2130 Aug
- Matchday 2023 Aug
- Matchday 1916 Aug
- Matchday 188 Aug
- Matchday 171 Aug
- Matchday 1625 Jul
- Matchday 1517 Jul
- Matchday 1424 May
- Matchday 1324 May
- Matchday 1217 May
- Matchday 1110 May
- Matchday 103 May
- Matchday 926 Apr
- Matchday 819 Apr
- Matchday 712 Apr
- Matchday 64 Apr
- Matchday 522 Mar
- Matchday 415 Mar
- Matchday 38 Mar
- Matchday 21 Mar
- Matchday 121 Feb