MLS play-off odds after Matchday 12
After the games up to 17 May 2026
Nashville lead the play-off race at 100%. Charlotte 3–1 Toronto moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Play-offs
Up
Houston15%38%+23 pts
Real Salt Lake50%71%+21 pts
NYCFC56%74%+18 pts
Down
Minnesota88%62%−26 pts
D.C. United26%13%−13 pts
LAFC98%86%−12 pts
Houston's play-off chances rose from 15% to 38%. Minnesota's play-off chances fell from 88% to 62%. Nashville lead the play-off race at 100%.
Changes since Matchday 11, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Charlotte 3–1 Toronto moved the odds the most. Charlotte's play-off chances fell from 73% to 71%. Toronto lost 3–1 at Charlotte, and their play-off chances fell from 15% to 12%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The play-off race
- Nashville
- Inter Miami
- Vancouver
- San Jose
- Chicago
Show as a table
| Round | Nashville | Inter Miami | Vancouver | San Jose | Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79% | 88% | 97% | 58% | 57% |
| 2 | 83% | 90% | 98% | 67% | 71% |
| 3 | 93% | 99% | 99% | 82% | 80% |
| 4 | 98% | 99% | 100% | 76% | 63% |
| 5 | 99% | 100% | 100% | 86% | 82% |
| 6 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 91% | 86% |
| 7 | 100% | 98% | 100% | 95% | 89% |
| 8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 91% |
| 9 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% |
| 10 | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 93% |
| 11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 81% |
| 12 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 96% |
The top five clubs' play-off chances after each round.
Every club's chances
Chances after Matchday 12, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 11 below each.
All reports this season
- Matchday 301 Nov
- Matchday 2924 Oct
- Matchday 2818 Oct
- Matchday 2711 Oct
- Matchday 261 Oct
- Matchday 2527 Sept
- Matchday 2420 Sept
- Matchday 2313 Sept
- Matchday 225 Sept
- Matchday 2130 Aug
- Matchday 2023 Aug
- Matchday 1916 Aug
- Matchday 188 Aug
- Matchday 171 Aug
- Matchday 1625 Jul
- Matchday 1517 Jul
- Matchday 1424 May
- Matchday 1324 May
- Matchday 1217 May
- Matchday 1110 May
- Matchday 103 May
- Matchday 926 Apr
- Matchday 819 Apr
- Matchday 712 Apr
- Matchday 64 Apr
- Matchday 522 Mar
- Matchday 415 Mar
- Matchday 38 Mar
- Matchday 21 Mar
- Matchday 121 Feb