MLS play-off odds after Matchday 17
After the games up to 1 August 2026
Nashville lead the play-off race at 100%. Portland 2–1 Seattle moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Play-offs
Up
Houston49%66%+17 pts
Cincinnati61%72%+11 pts
Portland28%39%+11 pts
Houston won 2–0 at Sporting KC, and their play-off chances rose from 49% to 66%. Seattle lost 2–1 at Portland, and their play-off chances fell from 63% to 52%. Nashville lead the play-off race at 100%.
Changes since Matchday 16, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Portland 2–1 Seattle moved the odds the most. Portland beat Seattle 2–1 at home, and their play-off chances rose from 28% to 39%. Seattle lost 2–1 at Portland, and their play-off chances fell from 63% to 52%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The play-off race
- Nashville
- Inter Miami
- Vancouver
- LAFC
- San Jose
Show as a table
| Round | Nashville | Inter Miami | Vancouver | LAFC | San Jose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79% | 88% | 97% | 96% | 58% |
| 2 | 83% | 90% | 98% | 99% | 67% |
| 3 | 93% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 82% |
| 4 | 98% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 76% |
| 5 | 99% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 86% |
| 6 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 100% | 91% |
| 7 | 100% | 98% | 100% | 99% | 95% |
| 8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 99% |
| 9 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% |
| 10 | 100% | 99% | 100% | 98% | 100% |
| 11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 100% |
| 12 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 86% | 99% |
| 13 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 84% | 100% |
| 14 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 90% | 100% |
| 15 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 100% |
| 16 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 97% |
| 17 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 95% |
The top five clubs' play-off chances after each round.
Every club's chances
Chances after Matchday 17, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 16 below each.
All reports this season
- Matchday 301 Nov
- Matchday 2924 Oct
- Matchday 2818 Oct
- Matchday 2711 Oct
- Matchday 261 Oct
- Matchday 2527 Sept
- Matchday 2420 Sept
- Matchday 2313 Sept
- Matchday 225 Sept
- Matchday 2130 Aug
- Matchday 2023 Aug
- Matchday 1916 Aug
- Matchday 188 Aug
- Matchday 171 Aug
- Matchday 1625 Jul
- Matchday 1517 Jul
- Matchday 1424 May
- Matchday 1324 May
- Matchday 1217 May
- Matchday 1110 May
- Matchday 103 May
- Matchday 926 Apr
- Matchday 819 Apr
- Matchday 712 Apr
- Matchday 64 Apr
- Matchday 522 Mar
- Matchday 415 Mar
- Matchday 38 Mar
- Matchday 21 Mar
- Matchday 121 Feb