MLS play-off odds after Matchday 11
After the games up to 10 May 2026
Nashville lead the play-off race at >99%. Chicago 1–3 NY Red Bulls moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Play-offs
Up
NY Red Bulls15%37%+22 pts
NYCFC40%56%+16 pts
Dallas41%53%+12 pts
NY Red Bulls won 3–1 at Chicago, and their play-off chances rose from 15% to 37%. Columbus lost 3–0 at NYCFC, and their play-off chances fell from 50% to 35%. Nashville lead the play-off race at >99%.
Changes since Matchday 10, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Chicago 1–3 NY Red Bulls moved the odds the most. Chicago lost 3–1 to NY Red Bulls at home, and their play-off chances fell from 93% to 81%. NY Red Bulls won 3–1 at Chicago, and their play-off chances rose from 15% to 37%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The play-off race
- Nashville
- Vancouver
- San Jose
- Inter Miami
- LAFC
Show as a table
| Round | Nashville | Vancouver | San Jose | Inter Miami | LAFC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79% | 97% | 58% | 88% | 96% |
| 2 | 83% | 98% | 67% | 90% | 99% |
| 3 | 93% | 99% | 82% | 99% | 99% |
| 4 | 98% | 100% | 76% | 99% | 100% |
| 5 | 99% | 100% | 86% | 100% | 99% |
| 6 | 99% | 99% | 91% | 99% | 100% |
| 7 | 100% | 100% | 95% | 98% | 99% |
| 8 | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 97% |
| 9 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% |
| 10 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 98% |
| 11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% |
The top five clubs' play-off chances after each round.
Every club's chances
Chances after Matchday 11, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 10 below each.
All reports this season
- Matchday 301 Nov
- Matchday 2924 Oct
- Matchday 2818 Oct
- Matchday 2711 Oct
- Matchday 261 Oct
- Matchday 2527 Sept
- Matchday 2420 Sept
- Matchday 2313 Sept
- Matchday 225 Sept
- Matchday 2130 Aug
- Matchday 2023 Aug
- Matchday 1916 Aug
- Matchday 188 Aug
- Matchday 171 Aug
- Matchday 1625 Jul
- Matchday 1517 Jul
- Matchday 1424 May
- Matchday 1324 May
- Matchday 1217 May
- Matchday 1110 May
- Matchday 103 May
- Matchday 926 Apr
- Matchday 819 Apr
- Matchday 712 Apr
- Matchday 64 Apr
- Matchday 522 Mar
- Matchday 415 Mar
- Matchday 38 Mar
- Matchday 21 Mar
- Matchday 121 Feb