MLS play-off odds after Matchday 1

After the games up to 21 February 2026

Vancouver lead the play-off race at 97%.

Biggest risers and fallers

This is the season's first report: the changes start with the next round.

Show as a table

Round	Vancouver	LAFC	San Diego	Inter Miami	Nashville
1	97%	96%	96%	88%	79%

The top five clubs' play-off chances after each round.

#	Club	Pts	Play-offsPlay-offs
1	NashvilleNashville SC	3	79%
1	San DiegoSan Diego FC	3	96%
2	CincinnatiFC Cincinnati	3	62%
2	LAFCLAFC	3	96%
3	NY Red BullsNew York Red Bulls	3	65%
3	San JoseSan Jose Earthquakes	3	58%
4	DallasFC Dallas	3	47%
4	D.C. UnitedD.C. United	3	3%
5	PortlandPortland Timbers	3	38%
5	CharlotteCharlotte FC	1	61%
6	HoustonHouston Dynamo FC	3	32%
6	NYCFCNew York City FC	0	62%
7	ColumbusColumbus Crew	0	57%
7	VancouverVancouver Whitecaps	3	97%
8	TorontoToronto FC	0	26%
8	MinnesotaMinnesota United FC	1	78%
9	ChicagoChicago Fire FC	0	57%
9	AustinAustin FC	1	14%
10	OrlandoOrlando City SC	0	39%
10	St. LouisSt. Louis City SC	1	18%
11	ColoradoColorado Rapids	0	20%
11	PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia Union	0	77%
12	LA GalaxyLA Galaxy	0	16%
12	AtlantaAtlanta United FC	0	4%
13	New EnglandNew England Revolution	0	19%
13	SeattleSeattle Sounders FC	0	76%
14	Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake	0	12%
14	Inter MiamiInter Miami CF	0	88%
15	Sporting KCSporting Kansas City	0	4%
15	CF MontréalCF Montréal	0	1%

Chances after Matchday 1, from 10,000 simulated seasons.