MLS play-off odds after Matchday 21
After the games up to 30 August 2026
Vancouver lead the play-off race at 100%. Colorado 1–0 Real Salt Lake moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Play-offs
Up
Colorado26%41%+15 pts
San Diego45%58%+13 pts
Philadelphia12%24%+12 pts
Down
Portland45%30%−15 pts
Real Salt Lake32%25%−7 pts
NY Red Bulls15%8%−7 pts
Colorado beat Real Salt Lake 1–0 at home, and their play-off chances rose from 26% to 41%. Portland lost 2–1 to Austin at home, and their play-off chances fell from 45% to 30%. Vancouver lead the play-off race at 100%.
Changes since Matchday 20, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Colorado 1–0 Real Salt Lake moved the odds the most. Colorado beat Real Salt Lake 1–0 at home, and their play-off chances rose from 26% to 41%. Real Salt Lake lost 1–0 at Colorado, and their play-off chances fell from 32% to 25%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The play-off race
- Vancouver
- Nashville
- Inter Miami
- Chicago
- New England
Show as a table
| Round | Vancouver | Nashville | Inter Miami | Chicago | New England |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97% | 79% | 88% | 57% | 19% |
| 2 | 98% | 83% | 90% | 71% | 16% |
| 3 | 99% | 93% | 99% | 80% | 18% |
| 4 | 100% | 98% | 99% | 63% | 58% |
| 5 | 100% | 99% | 100% | 82% | 45% |
| 6 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 86% | 52% |
| 7 | 100% | 100% | 98% | 89% | 56% |
| 8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 91% | 69% |
| 9 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 87% |
| 10 | 100% | 100% | 99% | 93% | 92% |
| 11 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 81% | 96% |
| 12 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 95% |
| 13 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 92% |
| 14 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 92% |
| 15 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 93% |
| 16 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 93% |
| 17 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 91% |
| 18 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 84% |
| 19 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 80% |
| 20 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 93% |
| 21 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 98% |
The top five clubs' play-off chances after each round.
Every club's chances
Chances after Matchday 21, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 20 below each.
All reports this season
- Matchday 301 Nov
- Matchday 2924 Oct
- Matchday 2818 Oct
- Matchday 2711 Oct
- Matchday 261 Oct
- Matchday 2527 Sept
- Matchday 2420 Sept
- Matchday 2313 Sept
- Matchday 225 Sept
- Matchday 2130 Aug
- Matchday 2023 Aug
- Matchday 1916 Aug
- Matchday 188 Aug
- Matchday 171 Aug
- Matchday 1625 Jul
- Matchday 1517 Jul
- Matchday 1424 May
- Matchday 1324 May
- Matchday 1217 May
- Matchday 1110 May
- Matchday 103 May
- Matchday 926 Apr
- Matchday 819 Apr
- Matchday 712 Apr
- Matchday 64 Apr
- Matchday 522 Mar
- Matchday 415 Mar
- Matchday 38 Mar
- Matchday 21 Mar
- Matchday 121 Feb