J1 League title odds after Matchday 11
After the games up to 21 October 2026
Machida Zelvia lead the title race at 61%. V-Varen 4–0 Sanfreece moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Machida Zelvia30%61%+31 pts
Down
Sanfreece45%17%−28 pts
Vissel Kobe9%6%−3 pts
Kashima4%3%−1 pt
Machida Zelvia won 5–0 at Shimizu, and their title chances rose from 30% to 61%. Sanfreece lost 4–0 at V-Varen, and their title chances fell from 45% to 17%. Machida Zelvia lead the title race at 61%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Up
- Machida Zelvia75%91%+16 pts
Kashiwa36%41%+5 pts
Kawasaki7%12%+5 pts
Down
- Sanfreece84%62%−22 pts
- Vissel Kobe41%34%−7 pts
Yokohama FM4%3%−1 pt
Machida Zelvia won 5–0 at Shimizu, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 75% to 91%. Sanfreece lost 4–0 at V-Varen, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 84% to 62%.
Relegation
Up
A Fukuoka18%32%+14 pts
Mito Hollyhock19%31%+12 pts
Shimizu4%11%+7 pts
Down
V-Varen41%15%−26 pts
Gamba Osaka24%17%−7 pts
Okayama8%4%−4 pts
A Fukuoka lost 2–1 to Gamba Osaka at home, and their relegation chances rose from 18% to 32%. V-Varen beat Sanfreece 4–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 41% to 15%.
Changes since Matchday 10, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
V-Varen 4–0 Sanfreece moved the odds the most. V-Varen beat Sanfreece 4–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 41% to 15%. Sanfreece lost 4–0 at V-Varen, and their title chances fell from 45% to 17%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Machida Zelvia
- Sanfreece
- Kashiwa
- Vissel Kobe
- Tokyo
Show as a table
| Round | Machida Zelvia | Sanfreece | Kashiwa | Vissel Kobe | Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15% | 18% | 19% | 8% | <1% |
| 2 | 22% | 26% | 22% | 3% | <1% |
| 3 | 31% | 17% | 23% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 23% | 11% | 29% | 1% | <1% |
| 5 | 33% | 26% | 17% | 5% | <1% |
| 6 | 56% | 15% | 7% | 9% | <1% |
| 7 | 43% | 27% | 10% | 10% | 1% |
| 8 | 21% | 34% | 20% | 15% | 1% |
| 9 | 24% | 38% | 25% | 6% | 2% |
| 10 | 30% | 45% | 7% | 9% | 5% |
| 11 | 61% | 17% | 7% | 6% | 5% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia | 26 | 61%+31 pts | 91%+16 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  TokyoFC Tokyo | 24 | 5%±0 | 31%+3 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | SanfreeceSanfrecce Hiroshima | 23 | 17%−28 pts | 62%−22 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 | Vissel KobeVissel Kobe | 22 | 6%−3 pts | 34%−7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 | KashiwaKashiwa Reysol | 22 | 7%±0 | 41%+5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 | KashimaKashima Antlers | 20 | 3%−1 pt | 25%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 7 | KawasakiKawasaki Frontale | 19 | 1%±0 | 12%+5 pts | <1%±0 |
| 8 |  Urawa RedsUrawa Red Diamonds | 18 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 9 | Yokohama FMYokohama F. Marinos | 17 | <1%±0 | 3%−1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 10 | OkayamaFagiano Okayama | 16 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%−4 pts |
| 11 | ShimizuShimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 11%+7 pts |
| 12 |  NagoyaNagoya Grampus | 13 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 6%+1 pt |
| 13 |  Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka | 13 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 8%+1 pt |
| 14 | V-VarenV-Varen Nagasaki | 12 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 15%−26 pts |
| 15 | Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka | 10 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 17%−7 pts |
| 16 | Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock | 9 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 31%+12 pts |
| 17 |  Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga | 9 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 3%±0 |
| 18 | A FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 32%+14 pts |
| 19 |  JEF Utd ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 6 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 81%+4 pts |
| 20 |  Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy 1969 | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 91%−2 pts |
Chances after Matchday 11, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 10 below each.