J1 League title odds after Matchday 9
After the games up to 11 October 2026
Sanfreece lead the title race at 38%. Kashiwa 4–2 Vissel Kobe moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Kashiwa20%25%+5 pts
Sanfreece34%38%+4 pts
Machida Zelvia21%24%+3 pts
Down
Vissel Kobe15%6%−9 pts
Kawasaki2%<1%−2 pts
Yokohama FM2%1%−1 pt
Kashiwa beat Vissel Kobe 4–2 at home, and their title chances rose from 20% to 25%. Vissel Kobe lost 4–2 at Kashiwa, and their title chances fell from 15% to 6%. Sanfreece lead the title race at 38%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Up
- Kashiwa59%70%+11 pts
- Machida Zelvia58%68%+10 pts
- Sanfreece72%79%+7 pts
Down
- Vissel Kobe51%31%−20 pts
- Kawasaki12%4%−8 pts
- Yokohama FM12%8%−4 pts
Kashiwa beat Vissel Kobe 4–2 at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 59% to 70%. Vissel Kobe lost 4–2 at Kashiwa, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 51% to 31%.
Relegation
Up
Tokyo Verdy79%87%+8 pts
Gamba Osaka23%31%+8 pts
Mito Hollyhock8%14%+6 pts
Tokyo Verdy lost 2–0 to Sanfreece at home, and their relegation chances rose from 79% to 87%. Nagoya won 2–1 at Kawasaki, and their relegation chances fell from 36% to 18%.
Changes since Matchday 8, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Kashiwa 4–2 Vissel Kobe moved the odds the most. Kashiwa beat Vissel Kobe 4–2 at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 59% to 70%. Vissel Kobe lost 4–2 at Kashiwa, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 51% to 31%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Sanfreece
- Kashiwa
- Machida Zelvia
- Vissel Kobe
- Kashima
Show as a table
| Round | Sanfreece | Kashiwa | Machida Zelvia | Vissel Kobe | Kashima |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% | 19% | 15% | 8% | 29% |
| 2 | 26% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 22% |
| 3 | 17% | 23% | 31% | 1% | 26% |
| 4 | 11% | 29% | 23% | 1% | 33% |
| 5 | 26% | 17% | 33% | 5% | 16% |
| 6 | 15% | 7% | 56% | 9% | 9% |
| 7 | 27% | 10% | 43% | 10% | 5% |
| 8 | 34% | 20% | 21% | 15% | 4% |
| 9 | 38% | 25% | 24% | 6% | 4% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KashiwaKashiwa Reysol | 21 | 25%+5 pts | 70%+11 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | SanfreeceSanfrecce Hiroshima | 20 | 38%+4 pts | 79%+7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia | 20 | 24%+3 pts | 68%+10 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  TokyoFC Tokyo | 20 | 2%+1 pt | 16%+7 pts | <1%±0 |
| 5 | Vissel KobeVissel Kobe | 19 | 6%−9 pts | 31%−20 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 |  KashimaKashima Antlers | 16 | 4%±0 | 22%+1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 7 | Yokohama FMYokohama F. Marinos | 15 | 1%−1 pt | 8%−4 pts | <1%±0 |
| 8 | KawasakiKawasaki Frontale | 13 | <1%−2 pts | 4%−8 pts | <1%±0 |
| 9 |  OkayamaFagiano Okayama | 13 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 4%+1 pt |
| 10 |  ShimizuShimizu S-Pulse | 13 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%−5 pts |
| 11 |  Urawa RedsUrawa Red Diamonds | 12 | <1%±0 | 1%−2 pts | 2%+2 pts |
| 12 |  Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka | 12 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%±0 |
| 13 | Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock | 9 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 14%+6 pts |
| 14 |  V-VarenV-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 38%+1 pt |
| 15 |  NagoyaNagoya Grampus | 9 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 18%−18 pts |
| 16 |  Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga | 8 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt | 2%+1 pt |
| 17 |  A FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 13%−8 pts |
| 18 | Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka | 6 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 31%+8 pts |
| 19 |  JEF Utd ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 82%+4 pts |
| 20 | Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy 1969 | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 87%+8 pts |
Chances after Matchday 9, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 8 below each.