J1 League title odds after Matchday 12
After the games up to 25 October 2026
Machida Zelvia lead the title race at 50%. Tokyo 6–0 Mito Hollyhock moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Down
Machida Zelvia61%50%−11 pts
Vissel Kobe6%4%−2 pts
Kashima3%1%−2 pts
Sanfreece beat Shimizu 4–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 17% to 23%. Machida Zelvia drew 0–0 at Vissel Kobe, and their title chances fell from 61% to 50%. Machida Zelvia lead the title race at 50%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Down
- Kashima25%11%−14 pts
- Vissel Kobe34%26%−8 pts
- Machida Zelvia91%87%−4 pts
Tokyo beat Mito Hollyhock 6–0 at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 31% to 47%. Kashima lost 3–2 to Kashiwa at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 25% to 11%.
Relegation
Up
Mito Hollyhock31%48%+17 pts
A Fukuoka32%45%+13 pts
Shimizu11%16%+5 pts
Down
Tokyo Verdy91%76%−15 pts
JEF Utd Chiba81%70%−11 pts
Gamba Osaka17%12%−5 pts
Mito Hollyhock lost 6–0 at Tokyo, and their relegation chances rose from 31% to 48%. Tokyo Verdy beat A Fukuoka 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 91% to 76%.
Changes since Matchday 11, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Tokyo 6–0 Mito Hollyhock moved the odds the most. Tokyo beat Mito Hollyhock 6–0 at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 31% to 47%. Mito Hollyhock lost 6–0 at Tokyo, and their relegation chances rose from 31% to 48%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Machida Zelvia
- Sanfreece
- Kashiwa
- Tokyo
- Vissel Kobe
Show as a table
| Round | Machida Zelvia | Sanfreece | Kashiwa | Tokyo | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15% | 18% | 19% | <1% | 8% |
| 2 | 22% | 26% | 22% | <1% | 3% |
| 3 | 31% | 17% | 23% | 0% | 1% |
| 4 | 23% | 11% | 29% | <1% | 1% |
| 5 | 33% | 26% | 17% | <1% | 5% |
| 6 | 56% | 15% | 7% | <1% | 9% |
| 7 | 43% | 27% | 10% | 1% | 10% |
| 8 | 21% | 34% | 20% | 1% | 15% |
| 9 | 24% | 38% | 25% | 2% | 6% |
| 10 | 30% | 45% | 7% | 5% | 9% |
| 11 | 61% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 6% |
| 12 | 50% | 23% | 11% | 10% | 4% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia | 27 | 50%−11 pts | 87%−4 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  TokyoFC Tokyo | 27 | 10%+5 pts | 47%+16 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  SanfreeceSanfrecce Hiroshima | 26 | 23%+6 pts | 68%+6 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  KashiwaKashiwa Reysol | 25 | 11%+4 pts | 48%+7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 | Vissel KobeVissel Kobe | 23 | 4%−2 pts | 26%−8 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 |  KawasakiKawasaki Frontale | 22 | 1%±0 | 10%−2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 7 |  Urawa RedsUrawa Red Diamonds | 21 | <1%±0 | 2%+1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 8 | KashimaKashima Antlers | 20 | 1%−2 pts | 11%−14 pts | 0%±0 |
| 9 |  Yokohama FMYokohama F. Marinos | 18 | <1%±0 | 1%−2 pts | <1%±0 |
| 10 |  OkayamaFagiano Okayama | 16 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%±0 |
| 11 |  NagoyaNagoya Grampus | 14 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%−2 pts |
| 12 |  Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka | 14 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 8%±0 |
| 13 | ShimizuShimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 16%+5 pts |
| 14 |  V-VarenV-Varen Nagasaki | 12 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 15%±0 |
| 15 | Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 12%−5 pts |
| 16 |  Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga | 10 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 2%−1 pt |
| 17 | Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock | 9 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 48%+17 pts |
| 18 | Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy 1969 | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 76%−15 pts |
| 19 | A FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 45%+13 pts |
| 20 | JEF Utd ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 70%−11 pts |
Chances after Matchday 12, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 11 below each.