J1 League title odds after Matchday 6
After the games up to 6 September 2026
Machida Zelvia lead the title race at 56%. Nagoya 1–3 Machida Zelvia moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Machida Zelvia33%56%+23 pts
Vissel Kobe5%9%+4 pts
Kawasaki1%2%+1 pt
Machida Zelvia won 3–1 at Nagoya, and their title chances rose from 33% to 56%. Sanfreece lost 3–2 at Okayama, and their title chances fell from 26% to 15%. Machida Zelvia lead the title race at 56%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Up
- Machida Zelvia73%87%+14 pts
- Vissel Kobe25%39%+14 pts
- Kawasaki7%13%+6 pts
Machida Zelvia won 3–1 at Nagoya, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 73% to 87%. Kashiwa lost 2–0 to Yokohama FM at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 55% to 35%.
Relegation
Down
JEF Utd Chiba90%76%−14 pts
Okayama13%5%−8 pts
Tokyo4%1%−3 pts
Shimizu lost 3–1 at Kawasaki, and their relegation chances rose from 22% to 30%. JEF Utd Chiba beat Gamba Osaka 2–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 90% to 76%.
Changes since Matchday 5, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Nagoya 1–3 Machida Zelvia moved the odds the most. Nagoya lost 3–1 to Machida Zelvia at home, and their relegation chances rose from 14% to 21%. Machida Zelvia won 3–1 at Nagoya, and their title chances rose from 33% to 56%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Machida Zelvia
- Sanfreece
- Kashima
- Vissel Kobe
- Kashiwa
Show as a table
| Round | Machida Zelvia | Sanfreece | Kashima | Vissel Kobe | Kashiwa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15% | 18% | 29% | 8% | 19% |
| 2 | 22% | 26% | 22% | 3% | 22% |
| 3 | 31% | 17% | 26% | 1% | 23% |
| 4 | 23% | 11% | 33% | 1% | 29% |
| 5 | 33% | 26% | 16% | 5% | 17% |
| 6 | 56% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 7% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia | 16 | 56%+23 pts | 87%+14 pts | <1%±0 |
| 2 | Vissel KobeVissel Kobe | 13 | 9%+4 pts | 39%+14 pts | <1%±0 |
| 3 |  KashimaKashima Antlers | 12 | 9%−7 pts | 40%−13 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 |  KashiwaKashiwa Reysol | 12 | 7%−10 pts | 35%−20 pts | <1%±0 |
| 5 |  SanfreeceSanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 15%−11 pts | 53%−13 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 | TokyoFC Tokyo | 11 | <1%±0 | 5%+4 pts | 1%−3 pts |
| 7 |  Yokohama FMYokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 1%+1 pt | 9%+6 pts | <1%−2 pts |
| 8 | OkayamaFagiano Okayama | 10 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 5%−8 pts |
| 9 |  Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka | 10 | <1%−1 pt | 4%−2 pts | 1%±0 |
| 10 | KawasakiKawasaki Frontale | 9 | 2%+1 pt | 13%+6 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 11 |  Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock | 9 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 4%±0 |
| 12 |  Urawa RedsUrawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 1%+1 pt | 8%+5 pts | 1%−1 pt |
| 13 |  Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka | 6 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 12%+7 pts |
| 14 |  NagoyaNagoya Grampus | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 21%+7 pts |
| 15 |  Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga | 5 | <1%−1 pt | 3%−3 pts | 2%+1 pt |
| 16 |  A FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka | 4 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 11%+1 pt |
| 17 |  ShimizuShimizu S-Pulse | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 30%+8 pts |
| 18 |  V-VarenV-Varen Nagasaki | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 61%+7 pts |
| 19 |  Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy 1969 | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 76%−2 pts |
| 20 | JEF Utd ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 76%−14 pts |
Chances after Matchday 6, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 5 below each.