J1 League title odds after Matchday 5
After the games up to 2 September 2026
Machida Zelvia lead the title race at 33%. Mito Hollyhock 4–2 Kashima moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Sanfreece11%26%+15 pts
Machida Zelvia23%33%+10 pts
Vissel Kobe1%5%+4 pts
Sanfreece beat Nagoya 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 11% to 26%. Kashima lost 4–2 at Mito Hollyhock, and their title chances fell from 33% to 16%. Machida Zelvia lead the title race at 33%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Up
- Sanfreece49%66%+17 pts
- Vissel Kobe13%25%+12 pts
- Machida Zelvia66%73%+7 pts
Sanfreece beat Nagoya 3–0 at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 49% to 66%. Kashima lost 4–2 at Mito Hollyhock, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 76% to 53%.
Relegation
Up
Tokyo Verdy64%78%+14 pts
Nagoya8%14%+6 pts
JEF Utd Chiba86%90%+4 pts
Down
Okayama22%13%−9 pts
Mito Hollyhock13%4%−9 pts
Urawa Reds6%2%−4 pts
Tokyo Verdy lost 2–0 to Vissel Kobe at home, and their relegation chances rose from 64% to 78%. Okayama won 2–1 at JEF Utd Chiba, and their relegation chances fell from 22% to 13%.
Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Mito Hollyhock 4–2 Kashima moved the odds the most. Mito Hollyhock beat Kashima 4–2 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 13% to 4%. Kashima lost 4–2 at Mito Hollyhock, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 76% to 53%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Machida Zelvia
- Sanfreece
- Kashiwa
- Kashima
- Vissel Kobe
Show as a table
| Round | Machida Zelvia | Sanfreece | Kashiwa | Kashima | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15% | 18% | 19% | 29% | 8% |
| 2 | 22% | 26% | 22% | 22% | 3% |
| 3 | 31% | 17% | 23% | 26% | 1% |
| 4 | 23% | 11% | 29% | 33% | 1% |
| 5 | 33% | 26% | 17% | 16% | 5% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia | 13 | 33%+10 pts | 73%+7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  KashiwaKashiwa Reysol | 12 | 17%−12 pts | 55%−18 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  KashimaKashima Antlers | 12 | 16%−17 pts | 53%−23 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 | SanfreeceSanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 26%+15 pts | 66%+17 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 | Vissel KobeVissel Kobe | 10 | 5%+4 pts | 25%+12 pts | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka | 9 | 1%+1 pt | 6%+4 pts | 1%−3 pts |
| 7 | Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock | 8 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 4%−9 pts |
| 8 |  TokyoFC Tokyo | 8 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 4%±0 |
| 9 |  Yokohama FMYokohama F. Marinos | 7 | <1%±0 | 3%±0 | 2%±0 |
| 10 | OkayamaFagiano Okayama | 7 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 13%−9 pts |
| 11 |  KawasakiKawasaki Frontale | 6 | 1%±0 | 7%−1 pt | 1%±0 |
| 12 |  Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka | 6 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 5%±0 |
| 13 | NagoyaNagoya Grampus | 6 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 14%+6 pts |
| 14 | Urawa RedsUrawa Red Diamonds | 6 | <1%±0 | 3%+2 pts | 2%−4 pts |
| 15 |  Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga | 5 | 1%±0 | 6%+1 pt | 1%±0 |
| 16 |  ShimizuShimizu S-Pulse | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 22%±0 |
| 17 |  V-VarenV-Varen Nagasaki | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 54%−2 pts |
| 18 |  A FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 10%+4 pts |
| 19 | Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy 1969 | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 78%+14 pts |
| 20 | JEF Utd ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 90%+4 pts |
Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.