J1 League title odds after Matchday 10
After the games up to 18 October 2026
Sanfreece lead the title race at 45%. Kashiwa 1–3 Nagoya moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Sanfreece38%45%+7 pts
Machida Zelvia24%30%+6 pts
Vissel Kobe6%9%+3 pts
Down
Kashiwa25%7%−18 pts
Yokohama FM1%<1%−1 pt
Sanfreece beat Kyoto Sanga 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 38% to 45%. Kashiwa lost 3–1 to Nagoya at home, and their title chances fell from 25% to 7%. Sanfreece lead the title race at 45%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Up
Tokyo16%28%+12 pts- Vissel Kobe31%41%+10 pts
- Machida Zelvia68%75%+7 pts
Down
- Kashiwa70%36%−34 pts
- Yokohama FM8%4%−4 pts
Kyoto Sanga1%<1%−1 pt
Tokyo won 4–0 at Tokyo Verdy, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 16% to 28%. Kashiwa lost 3–1 to Nagoya at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 70% to 36%.
Relegation
Up
Tokyo Verdy87%93%+6 pts
Mito Hollyhock14%19%+5 pts
A Fukuoka13%18%+5 pts
Down
Nagoya18%5%−13 pts
Gamba Osaka31%24%−7 pts
JEF Utd Chiba82%77%−5 pts
Tokyo Verdy lost 4–0 to Tokyo at home, and their relegation chances rose from 87% to 93%. Nagoya won 3–1 at Kashiwa, and their relegation chances fell from 18% to 5%.
Changes since Matchday 9, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Kashiwa 1–3 Nagoya moved the odds the most. Kashiwa lost 3–1 to Nagoya at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 70% to 36%. Nagoya won 3–1 at Kashiwa, and their relegation chances fell from 18% to 5%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Sanfreece
- Machida Zelvia
- Vissel Kobe
- Kashiwa
- Tokyo
Show as a table
| Round | Sanfreece | Machida Zelvia | Vissel Kobe | Kashiwa | Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% | 15% | 8% | 19% | <1% |
| 2 | 26% | 22% | 3% | 22% | <1% |
| 3 | 17% | 31% | 1% | 23% | 0% |
| 4 | 11% | 23% | 1% | 29% | <1% |
| 5 | 26% | 33% | 5% | 17% | <1% |
| 6 | 15% | 56% | 9% | 7% | <1% |
| 7 | 27% | 43% | 10% | 10% | 1% |
| 8 | 34% | 21% | 15% | 20% | 1% |
| 9 | 38% | 24% | 6% | 25% | 2% |
| 10 | 45% | 30% | 9% | 7% | 5% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SanfreeceSanfrecce Hiroshima | 23 | 45%+7 pts | 84%+5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia | 23 | 30%+6 pts | 75%+7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | TokyoFC Tokyo | 23 | 5%+3 pts | 28%+12 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 | Vissel KobeVissel Kobe | 22 | 9%+3 pts | 41%+10 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 | KashiwaKashiwa Reysol | 21 | 7%−18 pts | 36%−34 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 |  KashimaKashima Antlers | 19 | 4%±0 | 24%+2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 7 |  KawasakiKawasaki Frontale | 16 | 1%+1 pt | 7%+3 pts | <1%±0 |
| 8 | Yokohama FMYokohama F. Marinos | 16 | <1%−1 pt | 4%−4 pts | <1%±0 |
| 9 |  Urawa RedsUrawa Red Diamonds | 15 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 1%−1 pt |
| 10 |  ShimizuShimizu S-Pulse | 14 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%±0 |
| 11 |  OkayamaFagiano Okayama | 13 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 8%+4 pts |
| 12 | NagoyaNagoya Grampus | 12 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 5%−13 pts |
| 13 |  Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka | 12 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 7%+3 pts |
| 14 | Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock | 9 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 19%+5 pts |
| 15 |  V-VarenV-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 41%+3 pts |
| 16 | Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 3%+1 pt |
| 17 | A FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 18%+5 pts |
| 18 | Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 24%−7 pts |
| 19 | JEF Utd ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 6 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 77%−5 pts |
| 20 | Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy 1969 | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 93%+6 pts |
Chances after Matchday 10, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 9 below each.