J1 League title odds after Matchday 8
After the games up to 20 September 2026
Sanfreece lead the title race at 34%. Machida Zelvia 2–4 Kashiwa moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Kashiwa10%20%+10 pts
Sanfreece27%34%+7 pts
Vissel Kobe10%15%+5 pts
Down
Machida Zelvia43%21%−22 pts
Kashima5%4%−1 pt
Kawasaki3%2%−1 pt
Kashiwa won 4–2 at Machida Zelvia, and their title chances rose from 10% to 20%. Machida Zelvia lost 4–2 to Kashiwa at home, and their title chances fell from 43% to 21%. Sanfreece lead the title race at 34%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Up
- Kashiwa41%59%+18 pts
- Vissel Kobe44%51%+7 pts
- Sanfreece68%72%+4 pts
Down
- Machida Zelvia80%58%−22 pts
- Kashima26%21%−5 pts
- Kawasaki17%12%−5 pts
Kashiwa won 4–2 at Machida Zelvia, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 41% to 59%. Machida Zelvia lost 4–2 to Kashiwa at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 80% to 58%.
Relegation
Up
Tokyo Verdy76%79%+3 pts
JEF Utd Chiba75%78%+3 pts
Nagoya33%36%+3 pts
Down
Shimizu19%9%−10 pts
V-Varen41%37%−4 pts
Kyoto Sanga3%1%−2 pts
Tokyo Verdy lost 3–1 at Urawa Reds, and their relegation chances rose from 76% to 79%. Shimizu beat JEF Utd Chiba 2–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 19% to 9%.
Changes since Matchday 7, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Machida Zelvia 2–4 Kashiwa moved the odds the most. Machida Zelvia lost 4–2 to Kashiwa at home, and their title chances fell from 43% to 21%. Kashiwa won 4–2 at Machida Zelvia, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 41% to 59%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Sanfreece
- Machida Zelvia
- Kashiwa
- Vissel Kobe
- Kashima
Show as a table
| Round | Sanfreece | Machida Zelvia | Kashiwa | Vissel Kobe | Kashima |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% | 15% | 19% | 8% | 29% |
| 2 | 26% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 22% |
| 3 | 17% | 31% | 23% | 1% | 26% |
| 4 | 11% | 23% | 29% | 1% | 33% |
| 5 | 26% | 33% | 17% | 5% | 16% |
| 6 | 15% | 56% | 7% | 9% | 9% |
| 7 | 27% | 43% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
| 8 | 34% | 21% | 20% | 15% | 4% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel KobeVissel Kobe | 19 | 15%+5 pts | 51%+7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | KashiwaKashiwa Reysol | 18 | 20%+10 pts | 59%+18 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | SanfreeceSanfrecce Hiroshima | 17 | 34%+7 pts | 72%+4 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 | Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia | 17 | 21%−22 pts | 58%−22 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  TokyoFC Tokyo | 17 | 1%±0 | 9%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  Yokohama FMYokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 2%+1 pt | 12%+3 pts | <1%±0 |
| 7 | KawasakiKawasaki Frontale | 13 | 2%−1 pt | 12%−5 pts | <1%±0 |
| 8 | KashimaKashima Antlers | 13 | 4%−1 pt | 21%−5 pts | <1%±0 |
| 9 |  OkayamaFagiano Okayama | 13 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt | 3%+1 pt |
| 10 |  Urawa RedsUrawa Red Diamonds | 12 | <1%±0 | 3%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 11 |  Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka | 11 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 4%−1 pt |
| 12 | ShimizuShimizu S-Pulse | 10 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 9%−10 pts |
| 13 |  Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock | 9 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 8%+1 pt |
| 14 | Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga | 8 | <1%±0 | 2%+1 pt | 1%−2 pts |
| 15 | V-VarenV-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 37%−4 pts |
| 16 |  Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 23%+3 pts |
| 17 | NagoyaNagoya Grampus | 6 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 36%+3 pts |
| 18 |  A FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 21%+2 pts |
| 19 | Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy 1969 | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 79%+3 pts |
| 20 | JEF Utd ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 78%+3 pts |
Chances after Matchday 8, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 7 below each.