J1 League title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 29 August 2026
Kashima lead the title race at 33%. V-Varen 0–3 Tokyo moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Kashima26%33%+7 pts
Kashiwa23%29%+6 pts
Kyoto Sanga<1%1%+1 pt
Down
Machida Zelvia31%23%−8 pts
Sanfreece17%11%−6 pts
Kashima won 2–0 at Tokyo Verdy, and their title chances rose from 26% to 33%. Machida Zelvia drew 1–1 at Mito Hollyhock, and their title chances fell from 31% to 23%. Kashima lead the title race at 33%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Up
- Kashiwa64%73%+9 pts
- Kashima69%76%+7 pts
Vissel Kobe10%13%+3 pts
Down
- Machida Zelvia74%66%−8 pts
- Sanfreece56%49%−7 pts
Yokohama FM6%3%−3 pts
Kashiwa won 1–0 at Shimizu, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 64% to 73%. Machida Zelvia drew 1–1 at Mito Hollyhock, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 74% to 66%.
Relegation
Up
V-Varen37%56%+19 pts
Tokyo Verdy57%64%+7 pts
Okayama17%22%+5 pts
Down
Tokyo15%4%−11 pts
Nagoya16%8%−8 pts
Mito Hollyhock19%13%−6 pts
V-Varen lost 3–0 to Tokyo at home, and their relegation chances rose from 37% to 56%. Tokyo won 3–0 at V-Varen, and their relegation chances fell from 15% to 4%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
V-Varen 0–3 Tokyo moved the odds the most. V-Varen lost 3–0 to Tokyo at home, and their relegation chances rose from 37% to 56%. Tokyo won 3–0 at V-Varen, and their relegation chances fell from 15% to 4%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Kashima
- Kashiwa
- Machida Zelvia
- Sanfreece
- Vissel Kobe
Show as a table
| Round | Kashima | Kashiwa | Machida Zelvia | Sanfreece | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 19% | 15% | 18% | 8% |
| 2 | 22% | 22% | 22% | 26% | 3% |
| 3 | 26% | 23% | 31% | 17% | 1% |
| 4 | 33% | 29% | 23% | 11% | 1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KashiwaKashiwa Reysol | 12 | 29%+6 pts | 73%+9 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | KashimaKashima Antlers | 12 | 33%+7 pts | 76%+7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia | 10 | 23%−8 pts | 66%−8 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 | SanfreeceSanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 11%−6 pts | 49%−7 pts | <1%±0 |
| 5 | TokyoFC Tokyo | 7 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 4%−11 pts |
| 6 | Vissel KobeVissel Kobe | 7 | 1%±0 | 13%+3 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 7 |  KawasakiKawasaki Frontale | 6 | 1%±0 | 8%+1 pt | 1%±0 |
| 8 | NagoyaNagoya Grampus | 6 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 8%−8 pts |
| 9 | Yokohama FMYokohama F. Marinos | 6 | <1%±0 | 3%−3 pts | 2%+1 pt |
| 10 |  Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka | 6 | <1%±0 | 2%−1 pt | 4%+1 pt |
| 11 | Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 13%−6 pts |
| 12 |  Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka | 5 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 5%−3 pts |
| 13 | OkayamaFagiano Okayama | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 22%+5 pts |
| 14 | Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga | 4 | 1%+1 pt | 5%±0 | 1%−1 pt |
| 15 |  A FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka | 3 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt | 6%+1 pt |
| 16 |  ShimizuShimizu S-Pulse | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 22%+3 pts |
| 17 |  Urawa RedsUrawa Red Diamonds | 3 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 6%−6 pts |
| 18 | V-VarenV-Varen Nagasaki | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 56%+19 pts |
| 19 | Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy 1969 | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 64%+7 pts |
| 20 |  JEF Utd ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 86%−1 pt |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.