Eerste Divisie title odds after Matchday 12
After the games up to 24 October 2026
Heracles lead the title race at 84%. Almere City 2–3 Roda JC moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
VVV Venlo2%4%+2 pts
FC Volendam1%3%+2 pts
Emmen<1%1%+1 pt
Down
Almere City9%5%−4 pts
Heracles85%84%−1 pt
VVV Venlo won 4–2 at Dordrecht, and their title chances rose from 2% to 4%. Almere City lost 3–2 to Roda JC at home, and their title chances fell from 9% to 5%. Heracles lead the title race at 84%.
Promotion
Up
- VVV Venlo18%27%+9 pts
- FC Volendam12%19%+7 pts
- Emmen4%9%+5 pts
Down
- Almere City47%29%−18 pts
Vitesse4%1%−3 pts- Heracles96%95%−1 pt
VVV Venlo won 4–2 at Dordrecht, and their promotion chances rose from 18% to 27%. Almere City lost 3–2 to Roda JC at home, and their promotion chances fell from 47% to 29%.
Changes since Matchday 11, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Almere City 2–3 Roda JC moved the odds the most. Almere City lost 3–2 to Roda JC at home, and their promotion chances fell from 47% to 29%. Roda JC won 3–2 at Almere City, and their promotion chances rose from 3% to 6%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Heracles
- Almere City
- VVV Venlo
- FC Volendam
- NAC Breda
Show as a table
| Round | Heracles | Almere City | VVV Venlo | FC Volendam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% | 6% | <1% | 18% | 38% |
| 2 | 26% | 10% | 1% | 31% | 15% |
| 3 | 47% | 19% | 1% | 11% | 12% |
| 4 | 43% | 23% | 2% | 21% | 7% |
| 5 | 72% | 11% | 1% | 7% | 3% |
| 6 | 68% | 18% | 1% | 7% | 1% |
| 7 | 61% | 25% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 8 | 76% | 13% | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| 9 | 70% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 10 | 72% | 19% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| 11 | 85% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| 12 | 84% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HeraclesHeracles Almelo | 29 | 84%−1 pt | 95%−1 pt |
| 2 | VVV VenloVVV-Venlo | 25 | 4%+2 pts | 27%+9 pts |
| 3 | EmmenFC Emmen | 25 | 1%+1 pt | 9%+5 pts |
| 4 | Almere CityAlmere City | 22 | 5%−4 pts | 29%−18 pts |
| 5 |  Roda JCRoda JC Kerkrade | 22 | 1%+1 pt | 6%+3 pts |
| 6 |  NAC BredaNAC Breda | 21 | 2%±0 | 12%−1 pt |
| 7 | FC VolendamFC Volendam | 19 | 3%+2 pts | 19%+7 pts |
| 8 |  Jong AZJong AZ | 17 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 9 | VitesseVitesse | 17 | <1%±0 | 1%−3 pts |
| 10 |  MVVMVV Maastricht | 17 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 11 |  RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 16 | <1%±0 | 2%±0 |
| 12 |  Jong PSVJong PSV | 16 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 13 |  FC Den BoschFC Den Bosch | 15 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 14 |  TOP OssTOP Oss | 13 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 15 |  Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 12 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 16 |  De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 12 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 17 |  FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 18 |  DordrechtFC Dordrecht | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 19 |  Helmond SportHelmond Sport | 9 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 20 |  Jong UtrechtJong FC Utrecht | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
Chances after Matchday 12, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 11 below each.