Eerste Divisie title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 30 August 2026
Heracles lead the title race at 43%. FC Volendam 6–1 Dordrecht moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
FC Volendam11%21%+10 pts
Almere City19%23%+4 pts
VVV Venlo1%2%+1 pt
FC Volendam beat Dordrecht 6–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 11% to 21%. NAC Breda drew 2–2 at Roda JC, and their title chances fell from 12% to 7%. Heracles lead the title race at 43%.
Promotion
Up
- FC Volendam27%44%+17 pts
- Almere City39%46%+7 pts
- VVV Venlo4%8%+4 pts
FC Volendam beat Dordrecht 6–1 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 27% to 44%. NAC Breda drew 2–2 at Roda JC, and their promotion chances fell from 28% to 18%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
FC Volendam 6–1 Dordrecht moved the odds the most. FC Volendam beat Dordrecht 6–1 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 27% to 44%. Dordrecht lost 6–1 at FC Volendam, and their promotion chances fell from 1% to <1%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Heracles
- Almere City
- FC Volendam
- NAC Breda
- VVV Venlo
Show as a table
| Round | Heracles | Almere City | FC Volendam | NAC Breda | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% | 6% | 18% | 38% | <1% |
| 2 | 26% | 10% | 31% | 15% | 1% |
| 3 | 47% | 19% | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| 4 | 43% | 23% | 21% | 7% | 2% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HeraclesHeracles Almelo | 12 | 43%−4 pts | 66%−1 pt |
| 2 |  MVVMVV Maastricht | 12 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 10 | 23%+4 pts | 46%+7 pts |
| 4 | VVV VenloVVV-Venlo | 9 | 2%+1 pt | 8%+4 pts |
| 5 |  EmmenFC Emmen | 9 | <1%−2 pts | 1%−5 pts |
| 6 |  VitesseVitesse | 7 | 2%+1 pt | 7%+3 pts |
| 7 |  Roda JCRoda JC Kerkrade | 7 | 1%−1 pt | 3%−4 pts |
| 8 |  Jong PSVJong PSV | 7 | 1%−1 pt | 4%−2 pts |
| 9 |  NAC BredaNAC Breda | 7 | 7%−5 pts | 18%−10 pts |
| 10 | FC VolendamFC Volendam | 6 | 21%+10 pts | 44%+17 pts |
| 11 |  RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 4 | <1%−1 pt | 2%−3 pts |
| 12 |  FC Den BoschFC Den Bosch | 4 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−3 pts |
| 13 |  DordrechtFC Dordrecht | 4 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 14 |  Jong AZJong AZ | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 15 |  Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 16 |  TOP OssTOP Oss | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 17 |  FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 18 |  Helmond SportHelmond Sport | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 19 |  De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 1 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 20 |  Jong UtrechtJong FC Utrecht | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.