Eerste Divisie title odds after Matchday 11
After the games up to 19 October 2026
Heracles lead the title race at 85%. Emmen 2–1 Almere City moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Down
Almere City19%9%−10 pts
VVV Venlo5%2%−3 pts
FC Volendam3%1%−2 pts
Heracles won 5–1 at MVV, and their title chances rose from 72% to 85%. Almere City lost 2–1 at Emmen, and their title chances fell from 19% to 9%. Heracles lead the title race at 85%.
Promotion
Down
- Almere City59%47%−12 pts
- VVV Venlo21%18%−3 pts
- FC Volendam13%12%−1 pt
NAC Breda won 2–0 at Helmond Sport, and their promotion chances rose from 7% to 13%. Almere City lost 2–1 at Emmen, and their promotion chances fell from 59% to 47%.
Changes since Matchday 10, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Emmen 2–1 Almere City moved the odds the most. Emmen beat Almere City 2–1 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 2% to 4%. Almere City lost 2–1 at Emmen, and their promotion chances fell from 59% to 47%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Heracles
- Almere City
- VVV Venlo
- NAC Breda
- FC Volendam
Show as a table
| Round | Heracles | Almere City | VVV Venlo | NAC Breda | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% | 6% | <1% | 38% | 18% |
| 2 | 26% | 10% | 1% | 15% | 31% |
| 3 | 47% | 19% | 1% | 12% | 11% |
| 4 | 43% | 23% | 2% | 7% | 21% |
| 5 | 72% | 11% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
| 6 | 68% | 18% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| 7 | 61% | 25% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 8 | 76% | 13% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 9 | 70% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 10 | 72% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 11 | 85% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HeraclesHeracles Almelo | 28 | 85%+13 pts | 96%+4 pts |
| 2 | Almere CityAlmere City | 22 | 9%−10 pts | 47%−12 pts |
| 3 | VVV VenloVVV-Venlo | 22 | 2%−3 pts | 18%−3 pts |
| 4 |  EmmenFC Emmen | 22 | <1%±0 | 4%+2 pts |
| 5 |  NAC BredaNAC Breda | 20 | 2%+1 pt | 13%+6 pts |
| 6 |  Roda JCRoda JC Kerkrade | 19 | <1%±0 | 3%+2 pts |
| 7 |  VitesseVitesse | 17 | <1%±0 | 4%+2 pts |
| 8 | FC VolendamFC Volendam | 16 | 1%−2 pts | 12%−1 pt |
| 9 |  MVVMVV Maastricht | 16 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 10 |  RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 15 | <1%±0 | 2%±0 |
| 11 |  Jong AZJong AZ | 14 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 12 |  FC Den BoschFC Den Bosch | 14 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 13 |  Jong PSVJong PSV | 13 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 14 |  TOP OssTOP Oss | 12 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 15 |  FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 16 |  Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 11 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 17 |  De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 11 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 18 |  DordrechtFC Dordrecht | 11 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 19 |  Helmond SportHelmond Sport | 9 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 20 |  Jong UtrechtJong FC Utrecht | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 |
Chances after Matchday 11, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 10 below each.