League Two title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 1 September 2026
Exeter lead the title race at 21%. Rochdale 3–0 Shrewsbury moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Down
Exeter25%21%−4 pts
Colchester6%3%−3 pts
Port Vale3%1%−2 pts
Barnet drew 1–1 at Exeter, and their title chances rose from 10% to 15%. Exeter drew 1–1 with Barnet at home, and their title chances fell from 25% to 21%. Exeter lead the title race at 21%.
Promotion
Up
Barnet30%39%+9 pts
Swindon6%15%+9 pts
Bristol Rovers4%10%+6 pts
Down
- Colchester22%13%−9 pts
- Port Vale13%7%−6 pts
- Exeter54%49%−5 pts
Barnet drew 1–1 at Exeter, and their promotion chances rose from 30% to 39%. Colchester lost 2–0 at Bristol Rovers, and their promotion chances fell from 22% to 13%.
Relegation
Up
Shrewsbury38%64%+26 pts
Newport19%22%+3 pts
Accrington8%10%+2 pts
Down
Rochdale62%39%−23 pts
Crawley29%25%−4 pts
Cheltenham6%4%−2 pts
Shrewsbury lost 3–0 at Rochdale, and their relegation chances rose from 38% to 64%. Rochdale beat Shrewsbury 3–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 62% to 39%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Rochdale 3–0 Shrewsbury moved the odds the most. Rochdale beat Shrewsbury 3–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 62% to 39%. Shrewsbury lost 3–0 at Rochdale, and their relegation chances rose from 38% to 64%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Exeter
- Oldham
- Barnet
- Grimsby
- Rotherham
Show as a table
| Round | Exeter | Oldham | Barnet | Grimsby | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 8% |
| 2 | 38% | 6% | 15% | 11% | 4% |
| 3 | 25% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 8% |
| 4 | 21% | 19% | 15% | 10% | 7% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 9 | 2%+1 pt | 10%+6 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 2 | BarnetBarnet | 8 | 15%+5 pts | 39%+9 pts | <1%±0 |
| 3 |  WalsallWalsall | 8 | 5%+1 pt | 18%+3 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 |  CreweCrewe Alexandra | 8 | 5%−1 pt | 19%−1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 5 |  OldhamOldham Athletic | 7 | 19%±0 | 47%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 6 | CheltenhamCheltenham Town | 7 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 4%−2 pts |
| 7 |  York CityYork City | 7 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 4%+1 pt |
| 8 | ColchesterColchester United | 7 | 3%−3 pts | 13%−9 pts | <1%±0 |
| 9 | SwindonSwindon Town | 7 | 4%+3 pts | 15%+9 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 10 |  TranmereTranmere Rovers | 6 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 6%+1 pt |
| 11 |  GrimsbyGrimsby Town | 6 | 10%−1 pt | 31%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 12 |  Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 6 | 1%±0 | 5%−1 pt | 1%+1 pt |
| 13 |  RotherhamRotherham United | 5 | 7%−1 pt | 24%−2 pts | <1%±0 |
| 14 | NewportNewport County | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 22%+3 pts |
| 15 | ExeterExeter City | 4 | 21%−4 pts | 49%−5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 16 |  ChesterfieldChesterfield | 4 | 1%−1 pt | 6%−3 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 17 | CrawleyCrawley Town | 4 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 25%−4 pts |
| 18 |  NorthamptonNorthampton Town | 3 | 3%−1 pt | 13%−3 pts | <1%±0 |
| 19 | RochdaleRochdale | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 39%−23 pts |
| 20 |  Salford CitySalford City | 3 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 3%−2 pts |
| 21 |  GillinghamGillingham | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 22%−1 pt |
| 22 | ShrewsburyShrewsbury Town | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 64%+26 pts |
| 23 | AccringtonAccrington Stanley | 2 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 10%+2 pts |
| 24 | Port ValePort Vale | 2 | 1%−2 pts | 7%−6 pts | <1%±0 |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.