League Two title odds after Matchday 12
After the games up to 20 October 2026
Barnet lead the title race at 38%. Barnet 1–3 Swindon moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Walsall6%17%+11 pts
Salford City12%21%+9 pts
Exeter5%11%+6 pts
Down
Barnet62%38%−24 pts
Crewe8%6%−2 pts
Chesterfield2%1%−1 pt
Walsall beat Oldham 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 6% to 17%. Barnet lost 3–1 to Swindon at home, and their title chances fell from 62% to 38%. Barnet lead the title race at 38%.
Promotion
Up
- Walsall32%50%+18 pts
- Exeter27%41%+14 pts
- Salford City47%59%+12 pts
Down
- Barnet89%73%−16 pts
- Crewe37%26%−11 pts
- Chesterfield16%10%−6 pts
Walsall beat Oldham 3–0 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 32% to 50%. Barnet lost 3–1 to Swindon at home, and their promotion chances fell from 89% to 73%.
Relegation
Up
Crawley75%87%+12 pts
Bristol Rovers5%9%+4 pts
Oldham3%7%+4 pts
Down
Shrewsbury27%17%−10 pts
Tranmere18%9%−9 pts
Swindon8%2%−6 pts
Crawley lost 3–2 to Shrewsbury at home, and their relegation chances rose from 75% to 87%. Shrewsbury won 3–2 at Crawley, and their relegation chances fell from 27% to 17%.
Changes since Matchday 11, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Barnet 1–3 Swindon moved the odds the most. Barnet lost 3–1 to Swindon at home, and their title chances fell from 62% to 38%. Swindon won 3–1 at Barnet, and their relegation chances fell from 8% to 2%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Barnet
- Salford City
- Walsall
- Exeter
- Crewe
Show as a table
| Round | Barnet | Salford City | Walsall | Exeter | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9% | 1% | 3% | 27% | 3% |
| 2 | 15% | <1% | 2% | 38% | 5% |
| 3 | 10% | <1% | 4% | 25% | 6% |
| 4 | 15% | <1% | 5% | 21% | 5% |
| 5 | 17% | <1% | 7% | 19% | 4% |
| 6 | 24% | 1% | 5% | 13% | 5% |
| 7 | 30% | 1% | 10% | 7% | 2% |
| 8 | 35% | 6% | 10% | 4% | 3% |
| 9 | 40% | 9% | 11% | 6% | 6% |
| 10 | 52% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
| 11 | 62% | 12% | 6% | 5% | 8% |
| 12 | 38% | 21% | 17% | 11% | 6% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford CitySalford City | 25 | 21%+9 pts | 59%+12 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | BarnetBarnet | 21 | 38%−24 pts | 73%−16 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | CreweCrewe Alexandra | 21 | 6%−2 pts | 26%−11 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 | WalsallWalsall | 19 | 17%+11 pts | 50%+18 pts | <1%±0 |
| 5 |  CheltenhamCheltenham Town | 18 | <1%±0 | 2%+1 pt | 5%−4 pts |
| 6 |  York CityYork City | 17 | 1%±0 | 6%−2 pts | 1%±0 |
| 7 |  GillinghamGillingham | 17 | <1%±0 | 3%−1 pt | 3%+1 pt |
| 8 | ShrewsburyShrewsbury Town | 17 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 17%−10 pts |
| 9 | ChesterfieldChesterfield | 16 | 1%−1 pt | 10%−6 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 10 | ExeterExeter City | 16 | 11%+6 pts | 41%+14 pts | <1%±0 |
| 11 |  AccringtonAccrington Stanley | 15 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt | 5%±0 |
| 12 |  NewportNewport County | 15 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 13%−1 pt |
| 13 | TranmereTranmere Rovers | 15 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 9%−9 pts |
| 14 |  RochdaleRochdale | 15 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 23%+2 pts |
| 15 | SwindonSwindon Town | 15 | <1%±0 | 4%+3 pts | 2%−6 pts |
| 16 | Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 15 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 9%+4 pts |
| 17 |  GrimsbyGrimsby Town | 14 | 1%±0 | 6%−1 pt | 1%±0 |
| 18 |  Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 14 | <1%±0 | 1%−2 pts | 4%+2 pts |
| 19 |  ColchesterColchester United | 12 | <1%±0 | 2%+1 pt | 4%−1 pt |
| 20 |  Port ValePort Vale | 12 | 1%±0 | 9%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 21 | OldhamOldham Athletic | 11 | <1%±0 | 1%−2 pts | 7%+4 pts |
| 22 |  RotherhamRotherham United | 11 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt | 5%+2 pts |
| 23 |  NorthamptonNorthampton Town | 10 | 1%±0 | 4%−6 pts | 2%+1 pt |
| 24 | CrawleyCrawley Town | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 87%+12 pts |
Chances after Matchday 12, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 11 below each.