League One title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 2 September 2026
Leicester lead the title race at 27%. Huddersfield 3–1 Oxford Utd moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Leicester16%27%+11 pts
Huddersfield9%16%+7 pts
Sheffield Wed10%16%+6 pts
Down
Oxford Utd33%20%−13 pts
Stockport16%8%−8 pts
Mansfield6%1%−5 pts
Leicester beat Plymouth 2–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 16% to 27%. Oxford Utd lost 3–1 at Huddersfield, and their title chances fell from 33% to 20%. Leicester lead the title race at 27%.
Promotion
Up
- Leicester31%47%+16 pts
- Huddersfield19%33%+14 pts
- Sheffield Wed21%33%+12 pts
Down
- Oxford Utd53%36%−17 pts
- Stockport31%17%−14 pts
- Mansfield14%3%−11 pts
Leicester beat Plymouth 2–0 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 31% to 47%. Oxford Utd lost 3–1 at Huddersfield, and their promotion chances fell from 53% to 36%.
Relegation
Down
Cambridge55%32%−23 pts
Wigan49%32%−17 pts
Leyton Orient16%4%−12 pts
Bromley lost 5–0 to Leyton Orient at home, and their relegation chances rose from 78% to 94%. Cambridge won 2–1 at Bradford, and their relegation chances fell from 55% to 32%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Huddersfield 3–1 Oxford Utd moved the odds the most. Huddersfield beat Oxford Utd 3–1 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 19% to 33%. Oxford Utd lost 3–1 at Huddersfield, and their promotion chances fell from 53% to 36%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Leicester
- Oxford Utd
- Sheffield Wed
- Huddersfield
- Stockport
Show as a table
| Round | Leicester | Oxford Utd | Sheffield Wed | Huddersfield | Stockport |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 9% |
| 2 | 22% | 36% | 4% | 7% | 6% |
| 3 | 16% | 33% | 10% | 9% | 16% |
| 4 | 27% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 8% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HuddersfieldHuddersfield Town | 10 | 16%+7 pts | 33%+14 pts | <1%±0 |
| 2 | Sheffield WedSheffield Wednesday | 9 | 16%+6 pts | 33%+12 pts | <1%±0 |
| 3 |  BlackpoolBlackpool | 7 | 1%−1 pt | 3%−3 pts | 2%+1 pt |
| 4 |  Burton AlbionBurton Albion | 7 | 1%+1 pt | 2%+1 pt | 2%−6 pts |
| 5 |  BarnsleyBarnsley | 7 | 1%+1 pt | 2%+1 pt | 3%−2 pts |
| 6 | CambridgeCambridge United | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 32%−23 pts |
| 7 |  LutonLuton Town | 7 | 4%+3 pts | 9%+5 pts | <1%−2 pts |
| 8 | Leyton OrientLeyton Orient | 6 | 1%+1 pt | 2%+2 pts | 4%−12 pts |
| 9 | StockportStockport County | 6 | 8%−8 pts | 17%−14 pts | <1%±0 |
| 10 |  Notts CountyNotts County | 6 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 43%−5 pts |
| 11 |  BradfordBradford City | 6 | 1%−2 pts | 3%−5 pts | 2%+2 pts |
| 12 | MansfieldMansfield Town | 6 | 1%−5 pts | 3%−11 pts | 2%+2 pts |
| 13 | LeicesterLeicester City | 5 | 27%+11 pts | 47%+16 pts | <1%±0 |
| 14 |  ReadingReading | 4 | 2%+2 pts | 7%+6 pts | 1%−4 pts |
| 15 | Oxford UtdOxford United | 4 | 20%−13 pts | 36%−17 pts | <1%±0 |
| 16 |  PlymouthPlymouth Argyle | 4 | 1%−2 pts | 3%−4 pts | 2%+1 pt |
| 17 |  WimbledonAFC Wimbledon | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 49%+16 pts |
| 18 |  PeterboroughPeterborough United | 4 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 22%+6 pts |
| 19 |  BromleyBromley | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 94%+16 pts |
| 20 |  DoncasterDoncaster Rovers | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 34%+9 pts |
| 21 |  StevenageStevenage | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 8%±0 |
| 22 | WiganWigan Athletic | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 32%−17 pts |
| 23 |  MK DonsMK Dons | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 61%+14 pts |
| 24 |  WycombeWycombe Wanderers | 2 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt | 8%+4 pts |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.